Deal Or No Deal
Sometimes (more often than I’d like) I get grief for stating the obvious. That’s unfortunate.
Who’s Afraid Of The Big, Bad Government?
For US equities, domestic politics is an “unpriced” risk, according to Goldman. I spent some
Kolanovic, JPMorgan Still Skeptical. Of Everything
Jerome Powell’s reluctance to countenance market speculation about a return to rate hikes is indicative
Between The Lines
If you asked a committed bear what’s priced into equities in terms of risks, he
The Graveyard
Picture this. You’re huddled with your children and extended family in a tent where you’ve
Progressive History X
In August of 1912, while addressing the Convention of the National Progressive Party in Chicago,
An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks
If you’re wondering about mispriced risk in equities, it’s worth asking how stocks might react
Data Void Leaves Traders In Limbo
There’s very little on offer in the way of fundamental macro inputs this week. In
Warren Buffett Now Has Nearly $200 Billion. In Cash.
It’s a Berkshire weekend. In fact, it’s a “Woodstock for Capitalists” weekend. On Saturday, Warren
Rethinking The Repricing
Market pricing for the Fed trajectory tends to overshoot. It was clear in January that
Yelling ‘Stagflation!’ In A Crowded Theater
Don’t celebrate just yet. Investors were all set to bid up equities following a “Goldilocks”
Jobs Report: Goldilocks Is In The Eye Of The Beholder
Goldilocks or bust. The US economy added 175,000 jobs in April, the BLS said Friday
The ‘Big Picture’
One popular strategist has it all figured out. Bonds and the dollar are in an
Apple Delivers In Stormy Seas
What we can’t get in sales we’ll make up for with buybacks and payouts. That
Erdogan Pulls Plug On Trade With Israel
Israel Katz is indignant. Or irritable. Maybe (probably) both. “This is how a dictator behaves,”
Out Of Gas
One narrative, popular among contrarians of various sorts, says the Russian economy performed far better
Heretical Heterodoxy
If Jerome Powell made anything clear during his May 1 press conference (and I’m not
US Labor Costs Jump, Productivity Underwhelms In Bad Inflation Omen
In an incrementally discouraging development for US policymakers, the first estimate of Q1 labor productivity
Complicated Hypotheticals
It’ll likely take “longer than previously expected” for Fed officials to gain sufficient confidence in
Fed Laments ‘Lack Of Further Progress’ On Inflation, Unveils QT Taper
The Fed stayed camped at terminal for a sixth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, as expected.
Fed Gets Good News In JOLTS Release, But It’s Not Enough
The Fed caught a rare break ahead of the May FOMC decision when the BLS’s
Stagflation!
The marquee gauge of US factory activity slipped back below the threshold separating expansion from
Closely-Watched Treasury QRA Produces No Real Surprises
The Treasury refunding announcement came and went without apparent incident on Wednesday, when coupons were
US Labor Market Bulletproof As Private Hiring Strong Again
Private sector employers in the US added nearly 200,000 jobs in April, ADP said Wednesday.
Mighty Dollar’s Win Streak Eyed As Fed Cuts Delayed
With the Fed likely to indicate that any rate cuts are a relatively distant prospect
Amazon Talks Up AWS Strength, AI As Overall Sales Growth Slows
Amazon reported Q1 sales that narrowly topped estimates and guided below consensus for current-quarter growth
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