“The initial embrace of populism has gained traction based largely on a belief that political disruption, as a mode of change, deserves the same status that creative destruction used to have in the post industrial era with resulting political entropy becoming one of the main sources of market volatility.”
Category: trade
“Hold My Beer While I Meet Xi.” And Everything Else You Need To Know On Thursday
It’s Thursday, which means today’s Donald Trump gets to look the Donald Trump who refused to
Jobs, Minutes, Xi & The Juiceman: Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Welcome to the first quarter of the rest of your life. Q2 marks markets’ first
It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”
It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter
Monday Humor: Compare & Contrast
Courtesy of a guy who no one except Donald Trump takes seriously…
Making America Great Again, One Recession At A Time
“According to research from the Peterson Institute, under a full trade war, the US economy would be pushed into a recession over the next 2 years and the unemployment rate would push above 8%.”
“I’d Tax Every Benz,” “It’s A Corpse That Still Moves”: Are You Getting The Truth On Trade?
“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”
“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations
“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at
What’s The Best Hedge Against Protectionism? Fund Managers Weigh In
There’s a lot of chatter these days about the extent to which hedging doesn’t make
Thinking Globally In A World Gone Mad
One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the
What Trade War? Market Is Mispricing The Swans (Again)
If I’ve said it once (and I’m pretty sure I have), I’ve said it a
Markets Relieved After Trump/Abe Meeting, Reflation Narrative Intact
Well, it was all aboard the reflation train right out of the gate in early
Fitch Blasts Trump: He’s “A Risk To International Economic Conditions”
In a further testament to the impact the resurrection of nationalism will likely have on markets, Fitch was out Friday warning that Trump’s policies could well prove catastrophic for the rest of the world.
Maybe Shinzo Abe Isn’t The Right Guy To Be Talking To About Making Stuff “Great Again”
Well, Donald Trump and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe held a joint news conference a couple of
US Stocks Eye Record-er-er Highs As Oil Soars, China Exports Jump, Trump Meets Abe
Friday is all about Trump again. More specifically, FX markets will be closely eyeing a meeting between the President and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. Meanwhile, oil is buoyant Friday on the back of an IEA report showing OPEC has achieved a record 90% compliance while demand is on the rise.
Daily Kickstart (Chinese FX Reserves Fall Below $3 Trillion, Euro On The Back Foot, Senate Weighs Risk Of School Grizzly Attacks)
The “big” news overnight should have been Chinese FX reserves just like China should be back
These Days, Everyone Needs To Be A Macro Trader
There’s a lot to grapple with out there and unfortunately for those of you who
The Latest From Albert Edwards Or, Proof That “The Concept Of Heroes Is Never Great”
I’m not into hero worship. You might say that this is one time where I agree with Donald Trump who, when asked about heroes last month, hilariously said the following: “I don’t like the concept of heroes. The concept of heroes is never great.”
One Bank Warns: “Bad Trump Dominates The News”
But as far as markets are concerned, the new administration’s FX policy is just as crazy. In fact, that statement is itself crazy. That is, the fact that the new administration has a discernible “FX policy” is nuts. And this isn’t some “well it would be nice if…” kind of thing.
Daily Kickstart (Dollar Slumps After Bombastic Trump Speech)
If it was a weaker dollar Trump wanted he’s certainly gotten it in the days following his bombastic inauguration speech which was seen by the rest of the world (with the possible exception of Marine Le Pen) as a de facto declaration of war.
China Clowns America; Says Trump Will “Set Fire” To His Own House, Rest Of World
“Undoubtedly, the Trump administration will be igniting many ‘fires’ on its front door and around the world. Let’s wait and see when it will be China’s turn.”
Here’s Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Message To The World
“There is no point in blaming economic globalization for the world’s problems because that is simply not the case.”
China: We’ll “Fight Against Protectionism,” Lead “Global Governance” Push
Beijing is making a concerted effort to present China as the new champion of global governance. To the extent Trump believes he’s undercutting the Chinese, he’s actually creating a kind of power vacuum that Xi Jinping is more than happy to fill.
Dear Donald: You’re Not Hamilton And We’re Not Living In 1791
Since the election, these pages have been awash with commentary suggesting that the incoming Trump
Daily Kickstart (“I Had Some Bad Chinese”)
We’re gonna need a weaker yuan. Data out Friday showed China’s exports falling 6.1% y/y
Mexico To Buy Twitter?
“Instead of spending its precious reserves to defend the peso, Mexico should just buy Twitter Inc. — at a cost of about $12 billion — and immediately shut it down.” They’ve got the money so what the hell, right?
“Populism Leads To War And Poverty”: Chinese President To Deliver Stark Warning In Historic Visit To Davos
Essentially, Xi sees the US election and the political turmoil in Europe as an opportunity for China to usher in a new era of bipolarity on the way to -perhaps – unipolarity with China as the world’s only superpower.
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