“It’s not so much whether the Fed minutes were a damp squib, the media round by the Treasury Secretary was underwhelming or we were once again reminded of European political risk”…
Category: S&P 500
Just Three Words
All. In. Dammit.
“Le” Screwed: Markets Nervous Ahead Of Fed Minutes As Bookies Put Le Pen’s Chances Even With Rivals
“Good morning.” And also: “I told you so.” This whole idea that because Marine Le
Thrilling Video: Chasing The Equity “Bull” Market
This is what happens when you short a raging bull market and have to frantically cover on the way up…
Stocks May Be Asleep, But Credit Is Passed The F*ck Out
Morgan Stanley has been warning about richness in credit for months and I’ve often cited their analysis in my own posts. Indeed I’ve said repeatedly that when it comes to tranquil markets and rampant complacency, there’s no asset class that looks more dangerous than credit.
One Trader Doesn’t Get Why You’re So Damn “Punchy” This Morning
” The rest must have done some people good, because the feel of the market is a bit punchy as we start out of the gate. I’ve no strong explanation why”…
“Dude, Stock Market Selloffs Are Rare!” – No, They’re Not
“Large equity drawdowns are more common than you might think”…
Chart Check (“This Should Be Fine”)
Compare and contrast…
Markets To Trump: “Show Me The Damn Money, Already”
Is the White House serious about tax reform and fiscal stimulus, or was that all bullsh*t designed purely to get the President elected so Steve Bannon could implement his social agenda and promote nationalism?
“Alternative Fact”: 40% Of US Companies Are Losing Money
It’s “remarkable”…
“Listen! Do You Smell Something?” Canaries In The Coal Mine
“So on a morning of relative calm with S&P 500 futures trading at all-time highs, I thought I’d take the opportunity to focus on a few potential canaries in the coal mine of risk-on to watch.”
“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations
“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at
Two Charts & One Word
Spread the “love.”
Here’s What’s Coming Up For Markets
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
“JP Merlin” Returns: Quant Wizard Kolanovic Weighs In On Volatility, Geopolitics, And The Fed
He doesn’t have a long, white beard. He doesn’t wear a robe or a pointy
Here’s What’s Driving Stocks To Record Highs
“Over the last 3 weeks, US equities have rallied as fund positioning rose, the buyback bid resumed as companies exited blackout periods and US equity inflows returned over the last week. Overall US equity fund positioning getting elevated. Elevated overall positioning reflects that of long-short hedge funds and asset allocation funds.”
Goldman: “Cognitive Dissonance” Reigns In US Stock Market
“Cognitive dissonance exists in the US stock market. S&P 500 is up 10% since the election despite negative EPS revisions from sell-side analysts (see Exhibit 1). Investors, S&P 500 management teams, and sell-side analysts do not agree on the most likely path forward.”
Here Comes The Next “Tantrum”
I’m always warning about VaR shocks. More specifically, I like to remind investors that in
A French Kiss Leaves Global Risk Queasy On Friday
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
“Tortured Traders” And Uncertainty: One Trader Weighs In On Spooked Markets
“Yesterday, NY Fed President Dudley said it was very unusual to see stocks rising when there’s so much uncertainty. True, but they’re getting a lot of help on the regulatory and tax side. But there’s no evidence in other markets that everyone has a clear vision of the path ahead.”
Entire World Scrambles To Figure Out Why The Hell The Dollar Isn’t Stronger On Thursday
So what gives? Well, probably not a lot. It could just be everyone is taking a breather. But, in a testament to Nassim Taleb’s “narrative fallacy” argument, we have an overwhelming tendency to ascribe “causes” where there are none.
Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causation Which Is Fine Because That Was Never The Point
The problem – or at least one of the problems – seems to be that whenever some people hear “correlation”, they Marty McFly it right back to high school science class and regurgitate the old “correlation doesn’t equal causation” line and then subsequently tune out as if they’ve dropped the mic on me.
One Trader Warns On Market Myopia: “I’ll Make The Money, You Manage The Risk”
Ok, it’s just getting comical now. Everyone is saying what I’ve been saying for months
“Bigly”: Reflation Is Back As Dollar Rises, Global Stocks Rally, Oil Eyes EIA Data
Apparently, reports of the reflation meme’s demise were greatly exaggerated. It wasn’t too long ago
Tuesday Humor (“It’s Magic”)
Here’s what gets us to Dow 100,000…
I Like My Term Structures Kinky
I’ve talked quite a bit about how the US equity market is grossly mispricing political
Chart Check (Going Global On Valuations)
Valuations have become something of a hot topic of late for one very simple reason:
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