“This ‘treading water’ spread action for the credit market is in pretty sharp contrast to an equity market that has been rallying to new all time highs”…
Category: S&P 500
Binky’s Bullets: Wall Street’s Biggest Bull Explains His S&P 2600 Call
Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that Binky had summited Mount Siegel. That’s right, Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha is now officially the most bullish Wall Street strategist when it comes to the S&P, which he figures will hit 2600 by the end of the year.
US Stocks Eye Record-er-er Highs As Oil Soars, China Exports Jump, Trump Meets Abe
Friday is all about Trump again. More specifically, FX markets will be closely eyeing a meeting between the President and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. Meanwhile, oil is buoyant Friday on the back of an IEA report showing OPEC has achieved a record 90% compliance while demand is on the rise.
Chart Check (The Trump Trade Fade)
“Is the reflation narrative dead or alive?”
Want An Early Warning When The Cycle Turns? Ask Credit, Not Stocks
Stocks will sleep walk right off a cliff…
Chart Check (There’s Hope For You Yet)
For anyone still holding out hope that there’s upside for our standard valuation metrics beyond the 100th percentile, there’s always the old corporate buyback bailout…
Is This The Greatest Risk To Markets?
“(Un)favorable”…
A Listless Nadir
So it’s the weekend and on weekends I like to keep things simple for those
Behold: A Whole Bunch Of “Bull”Sh*t
Now, look. The thing about predicting the future is that you can’t ever really be “wrong”
Chart Check (“Not Again Please”)
Stocks have become completely disconnected from rates and FX in terms of vol. That’s a dangerous thing because it only corrects in one of two ways: 1) rates and FX vol subside, or 2) equity vol rises. When if equity vol rises, your stocks will likely get hit.
Kolanovic (a.k.a. “JP Merlin”) Sees 5% Stock Selloff
You might be familiar with JPMorgan’s quant wizard Marko Kolanovic or, as I like to
Daily Kickstart (Fed, Dollar In Focus As Global PMIs, iPhones Boost Sentiment)
Quite a lot of people seem to be hanging their hats on Wednesday’s Fed statement
Surprise! Markets Can Go Down Too!
“Nowadays, we have markets that have gone up or markets that have crashed. When they rise, the powers-that-be are doing their jobs and investors are getting their just rewards. When they go down, everyone just got their pockets picked.”
This Is Your Brain On Cross-Asset Correlations
If you’re a regular reader (and let’s face it, why wouldn’t you be?) you know I talk quite a bit about cross-asset correlations and volatility…
Daily Kickstart (Trump Trainwreck Overshadows BoJ, Eurozone Inflation, GDP)
Well, this is officially a f*cking trainwreck. As you’re probably aware by now, President Trump
He Pulled A Fonzie. He Jumped The Shark
“It ‘seems’ that the discombobulated implementation of Trump’s immigration orders has ‘furthered’ the market concerns”…
One Bank Tells You How To Hedge Downside Equity Risk
But Monday felt anything but “healthy.” There was nothing cathartic about it.
Too Much Of A Bad Thing?
Ok, so Monday was the worst day of the year for stocks. That would seem to
Daily Kickstart (Nervous Markets Weigh Trump Muslim Ban Ahead Of Big Week)
One of the most important things to remember when trading markets (or when living life
Chart Check (Goldman Forecasts)
The vampire squid’s crystal ball…
Chart Check (Bullish Double Feature)
Remember “irrational exuberance”?
Chart Check (Subtle Reminder)
The chart everyone is sick of seeing…
Daily Kickstart (“Bigly”)
Making stocks great again.
Daily Kickstart (Stocks Rise Across The Globe)
We start Wednesday with the dollar (where else, right?). Trump’s protectionist rhetoric and the lingering
Artistic Tribute To Record Close For Stocks
“It may be the alcohol talking, but”…
Dollar Doldrums Continue Into Monday Evening As Reflation Trade Unwind Rolls On
Well, Monday ended the same way Monday began. For the early risers who catch the
Stocks Bore Me, But People Sure Do Love A Good Bullish Thesis
One thing to note at the outset: the idea that because piling fiscal stimulus atop an overheating economy is likely to drive inflation and therefore people will buy stocks, has a major flaw. Namely that if most of the “benefit” from fiscal stimulus goes to inflation and not growth, then it’s exceedingly likely that you’ll get a poor growth-inflation outcome (i.e. stagflation).
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