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Category: Markets

Mea Culpa Minutes

July 6, 2022July 13, 2022

Minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting, released on Wednesday, skewed hawkish. That’s not terribly

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4 Comments on Mea Culpa Minutes

Beware Acute Downgrade Risk As Profit Reckoning Looms

July 6, 2022July 13, 2022

Hopeless. That’s how I’d characterize forward earnings estimates headed into Q2 reporting season in the

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5 Comments on Beware Acute Downgrade Risk As Profit Reckoning Looms

Pink Elephants And Collapsing Commodities

July 6, 2022July 13, 2022

Summer days tend to run together, but there’s enough in the way of idiosyncratic news

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10 Comments on Pink Elephants And Collapsing Commodities

‘Grizzly Bear’ Has One Question: ‘Is It Done Going Down?’

July 5, 2022July 13, 2022

“The question is whether it’s done going down,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who Bloomberg hyperbolically

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1 Comment on ‘Grizzly Bear’ Has One Question: ‘Is It Done Going Down?’

This Bear Market Still Has Teeth

July 3, 2022July 13, 2022

“Despite recession fears, S&P 500 consensus 2022 and 2023 EPS estimates have both been revised

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9 Comments on This Bear Market Still Has Teeth

The Most ‘Obvious’ Recession In History

July 2, 2022July 4, 2022

“Obviously unsustainable.” That’s how one market participants described the dynamic whereby purported savings “buffers” and

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9 Comments on The Most ‘Obvious’ Recession In History

Cash And Commodities Reign As ‘Everything Bubble’ Implodes

July 2, 2022July 9, 2022

Cash is trash. Just ask Ray Dalio, he’ll tell you. That’s one of his favorite

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3 Comments on Cash And Commodities Reign As ‘Everything Bubble’ Implodes

The Worst Year For Stocks Since 1872?

July 1, 2022July 3, 2022

Last year, when it became apparent to everyone that inflation might be on course to

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1 Comment on The Worst Year For Stocks Since 1872?

Recession Panic Crescendoes With Trio Of 2023 Fed Cuts Seen

July 1, 2022July 3, 2022

The US is “perilously close to a recession,” JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli said Friday. The bank

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1 Comment on Recession Panic Crescendoes With Trio Of 2023 Fed Cuts Seen

America Heads For ‘Industrial Downturn’

July 1, 2022July 3, 2022

US factory activity cooled more than expected last month, hotly anticipated data out Friday showed.

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Leave a Comment on America Heads For ‘Industrial Downturn’

Summertime In The 70s

June 30, 2022July 4, 2022

The good news is, it’s difficult to imagine the back half of 2022 being worse

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8 Comments on Summertime In The 70s

A ‘Brutal,’ ‘Pick Your Poison’ Moment

June 30, 2022July 2, 2022

The market knows. Traders are wise to the unenviable task confronting monetary policymakers, who, lacking

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11 Comments on A ‘Brutal,’ ‘Pick Your Poison’ Moment

Pollyannas Vs Chicken Littles: The Great American Profit Debate

June 28, 2022July 2, 2022

Are company analysts Pollyannas or are macro-minded strategists Chicken Littles? That’s becoming one the most

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4 Comments on Pollyannas Vs Chicken Littles: The Great American Profit Debate

‘Inflation Isn’t A Random Walk,’ Popular Strategist Reminds You

June 28, 2022June 29, 2022

“We all get the joke,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott wrote Tuesday. He was referring to the

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One CIO Is ‘Horrified’ At Analysts’ Profit Complacency

June 28, 2022July 9, 2022

“Economists have begun to cut their top-down economic forecasts for GDP, and yet fundamental company

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3 Comments on One CIO Is ‘Horrified’ At Analysts’ Profit Complacency

Bull In A China Shop

June 28, 2022June 28, 2022

“This sends the signal that the economy comes first,” a Guangzhou-based investor said Tuesday. “This”

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1 Comment on Bull In A China Shop

Why The Stock Selloff Will Resume

June 27, 2022June 28, 2022

Be careful, it could be a trap. That’s one way to read the latest from

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4 Comments on Why The Stock Selloff Will Resume

Stubborn US Economy Won’t Go Gentle Into That Good Night

June 27, 2022June 28, 2022

Every day it’s the same story. Or, rather, the same question: Is good news bad

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4 Comments on Stubborn US Economy Won’t Go Gentle Into That Good Night

Bear Market May Take Short Summer Vacation

June 27, 2022June 28, 2022

If this week turns out to be anything like last week for US equities, it’ll

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Inflation Blame Game: Whose Fault Is This Really?

June 27, 2022July 17, 2022

There’s no shortage of debate around the relative wisdom of deploying draconian rate hikes to

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2 Comments on Inflation Blame Game: Whose Fault Is This Really?

Russia Defaults. Nobody Cares

June 27, 2022June 27, 2022

Three years ago, when Donald Trump sanctioned Ayatollah Khamenei, I described the decision as “about

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1 Comment on Russia Defaults. Nobody Cares

Crisis-Weary Fed Has 9%-Tall Mountain Left To Climb: Quant

June 26, 2022June 27, 2022

Jerome Powell is a victim of circumstance, a golfer who “can’t putt,” a professional fall

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6 Comments on Crisis-Weary Fed Has 96-Tall Mountain Left To Climb: Quant

2022 Rivals 2008 For Suddenly Wild Bond Market

June 26, 2022June 27, 2022

“Keep those seatbelts fastened,” TD’s Priya Misra said, in a note documenting this year’s fireworks

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2 Comments on 2022 Rivals 2008 For Suddenly Wild Bond Market

‘All That Matters’

June 26, 2022June 29, 2022

A raft of data and a dash of Fedspeak should help traders refine the macro

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4 Comments on ‘All That Matters’

Crash

June 25, 2022June 27, 2022

Some of the best films are structured such that audiences are compelled to consider the

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6 Comments on Crash

The Stark Reality Of Modern Stock Market Rallies

June 25, 2022June 26, 2022

If you’re concerned that households, by far the largest owners of the US equity market

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14 Comments on The Stark Reality Of Modern Stock Market Rallies

Fed Up

June 24, 2022June 26, 2022

Jim Bullard wants to “nip inflation in the bud before it gets entrenched in the

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8 Comments on Fed Up

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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