Beware Acute Downgrade Risk As Profit Reckoning Looms

Beware Acute Downgrade Risk As Profit Reckoning Looms

Hopeless. That's how I'd characterize forward earnings estimates headed into Q2 reporting season in the US. I've written voluminously on this over the past several weeks. Much as it's too late for Fed policymakers and Biden administration officials to get out ahead of a technical US recession which, depending on the evolution of the data over the next two weeks, could be a virtual lock by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate later this month, it's too late for fundamental company ana
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5 thoughts on “Beware Acute Downgrade Risk As Profit Reckoning Looms

  1. Its almost as if the small-time retail investor (me!) is intentionally being left holding the bag. Gotta put us back in our place for the sake of the economy, i guess.

    1. @derek and it will be soooo nice (when earnings matter again)!

      I don’t have the data handy, but any thoughts on which qtr will see the largest negative estimate revisions? I think normally it is 3Q, because mgmts and analysts have run out of wishful thinking room for the FY. This time, maybe 2Q will get its fair share.

  2. Do analysts matter to the Whales? (I mean the real market movers like Blackrock, CalPers, etc)
    So many times they pick target prices that are astronomical “1 year targets” and 3 months later double or halve it, almost orthogonal of the actual companies finance or outlook?
    Glad to see Wilson sounds like a voice of reason – not sure this market is reasonable yet.

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