A few days ago, I explained why the AI “bubble” label may be a misleading
Category: Markets
Earnings Season’s Here! What To Expect From Corporate America
Earnings season’s here! Who’s excited? If your hand’s raised, you need to get out more.
Behold: The Great Golden Disconnect
Gold’s an inverse real yields play. Everyone knows that. It’s axiomatic. If you’re not enamored
Trillions Sits Out Stock Rally As Money Fund AUM Balloons
When will money market funds start to drain? I’m a little weary of that question
Why The ‘AI Bubble’ Label Is Misleading
Given the ubiquity of the “Magnificent 7” in market discourse, the prevalence of bear narratives
Searching For America’s Missing Recession
It’s hard to make a recession case for the US economy. Mostly because the US
Powell Says Neutral Rate Doesn’t Matter Today. He’s Wrong
The r-star discussion, which is to say the debate about where interest rates should be
If Past Is Precedent
In light of equities’ stellar YTD performance, and considering rampant speculation that a correction’s not
Stocks May Face Come-To-Jesus Moment In US Jobs Report
Early this week, I suggested US equities might be disquieted by a backup in rates
Rates Turn Adversarial Amid US Factory Fillip
The keen among you might’ve perceived the faintest hint of a “good news is bad
Bulls Look To Stay In Command As Q2 Dawns
After a banner Q1 for risk assets, the second quarter was poised for a constructive
More Goldilocks?
Economists expect more “Goldilocks” data out of the world’s largest economy this week. The US
Regulators
If you’re looking for (or need) a short-notice bear narrative for a market high on
Treasury Needs Fed Cuts For ‘Interest Cost Control,’ One Bank Says
I’m a bit allergic to quasi-nefarious Fed-Treasury “partnership” narratives. There’s something profoundly silly about stating
Half-Full Or Half-Empty?
There are a number of lenses through which one can view the ongoing equity rally
Albert Edwards Has A New Bear Narrative
Albert Edwards has a bear narrative. More than one, actually. Albert’s collection of bear narratives
‘One Day Out Of The Blue’
As the book closed on a second consecutive stellar quarter for equities, the bear case
Will Fed Hikes Catch Up To Corporates After All?
When it comes to refi penalty and roll risk, it was always (and self-evidently) a
Quiescent Vol Conjures Ominous Parallel
Volatility’s topical in 2024. Specifically, the absence of it. There’s no real mystery as to
Up, Down Or Sideways?
Never before has global manufacturing activity loitered so long in what amounts to a neutral
Drill It Up, I Say
A couple of days ago, over a french press (mine) and a Mich Ultra (his)
Stop Me If You’ve Heard This Before
Markets, and particularly equities, built in “great expectations” over a five-month rally that found global
Goldman: S&P Could Soar To 6,000 This Year. Or Dive To 4,500
The S&P hit Goldman’s year-end target last week. So, nine months early. The (very short)
Cash For Stocks!
One of the pressing questions headed into 2024 was this: What’ll become of the $6
The ‘DNA’ Of The ‘New Everything Bull’
Global equities were on track for their best week of 2024 and it was no
SocGen’s Kabra Dethrones Subramanian As Wall Street’s Biggest Bull
Move over, Savita. For nearly a month, BofA’s 5,400 year-end target for the S&P counted
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