The ECB on Thursday effectively confirmed that the Governing Council’s prepared to cut rates in June, contingent on its evaluation of inflation dynamics.

“Inflation has continued to fall, most measures of underlying inflation are easing, wage growth is gradually moderating and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labor costs in their profits,” the new statement read, on the way to noting that if the situation continues along the current trajectory, “it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.”

There’s not a lot to say here that I didn’t go over in my ECB preview. The bank’s in a pretty good position on inflation considering the circumstances and particularly considering the “difficulties” (that’s a euphemism) inherent in setting one monetary policy for nearly two dozen countries, all of which retain independence to set fiscal policy as they see fit.

Most evidence does indeed suggest that overall inflation’s on the way back to tolerable levels across Europe, even as the bloc remains very vulnerable to shocks, and even as “domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high,” as the ECB put it Thursday.

The figure above, which I used a few days ago in the above-linked preview, shows market expectations for policy rates, along with headline and core inflation.

Make no mistake: This isn’t an “all’s well that ends well” sort of deal. Europeans were just subjected to an existential energy crunch which precipitated a harrowing (if brief) bout of double-digit headline inflation. Inflation’s cumulative, as an old friend reminded me at dinner last month. For Europeans, 2% price growth today is on top of 11% price growth “yesterday.”

The ECB’s hiking campaign was the most aggressive in the institution’s relatively short history and (somewhat surprisingly) the monetary policy transmission channel proved to be reasonably efficient. That’s good for beating back inflation, but it also means rate hikes had their desired (which isn’t always synonymous with desirable depending on who you are) effect on the bloc’s economies, the two most important of which are barely growing if they’re growing at all.

In any case, the message from the ECB was clear enough on Thursday: The base case is a cut in June. The euro was flirting with February’s lows in and around the statement release.

As discussed here mid-week, the ECB and the BoE may be condemned to what could become a glaring policy divergence with the Fed in the event the US economy doesn’t downshift in the months ahead.

The common currency had its worst day in more than a year on Wednesday as the dollar surged following a third straight CPI overshoot in the US. That may mean it’s due for a bounce in the short-term. Or not. (Not investment advice either way.)

The ECB was keen to note that the new statement wasn’t tantamount to a promise. The bank will take things “meeting-by-meeting” and isn’t “pre-committing to a particular rate path.”