“When the facts change.” Over and over again since Scott Bessent stepped in to help
Category: Markets
September Is Cruelest Month For Stocks. And Bonds
Technically, we’re already several trading sessions into September, but the month doesn’t really “start” for
Bargain Bonds, Bubble Stocks?
Long-end US Treasurys: They’re either a screaming bargain or an uninvestable falling knife. We’ll find
Weekly: Are US Treasurys Becoming Uninvestable?
It’s always darkest before the dawn, as the old saying goes, but I’ll becha you
Trump Gives Warsh Rate-Cut Ultimatum
Dear Kevin: I’d say I feel bad for you, but I don’t. Not even a
Carry Off!
The Bank of Japan got the message. Then they conveyed it to markets. Scott Bessent’s
Waller, Lennon Send Hawks Packing
Chris Waller to the rescue. We’ve seen that before. We’ve also seen the opposite. So
Singing The Bond Blues
It’s all about growth. The bond selloff, I mean. That’s according to NY Fed chief
Buy The Fed Hike?
I’m not buying the Fed hike, figuratively speaking. As Donald Trump reminded Kevin Warsh early
Things Are Getting Interesting Again…
Things are starting to get interesting again. On Tuesday, Eurostat said headline inflation ran 3.3%
Somebody Help The Bonds!
Cue Navin: “They hate these bonds! Stay away from the bonds!” G7 yields moved higher
Long Bond Threatens Breach Of ‘All-Important’ Threshold
Trivia time! That’s what it often comes to during the final days of August, when
Who Wants To Loan The Saudis More Money?
If you’re curious as to whether upside to energy prices from the war is sufficient
Weekly: Fool Me Once
Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair to double-, triple- and
Money Musings
A few days ago, a reader wondered about the read-across of recent events for the
As The Cycle Turns…
We’re mid-cycle, and market participants might consider acting accordingly. That’s the message from Morgan Stanley’s
Nvidia Beats, Tips Huge Upside To Consensus For Next Year’s Sales
For the 16th consecutive quarter, Nvidia reported revenue that topped Wall Street estimates. Sales in
Bessent, Tilting at Windmills, Risks Reflexive Crisis
I’m quite possibly the only macro-market documentarian who doesn’t give a damn what Stan Druckenmiller
A Changed World Demands A Higher Term Premium
As a reminder: The term premium really shouldn’t be negative. There are myriad risks associated
Wilson Has ‘Different View From Mainstream’ On Rate Rise
As mentioned here on Monday morning, and as discussed at greater length earlier this month
The Road (Back) To Financial Repression
Markets have finally run out of patience with sovereign risk. That’s the overarching message from
Here’s Why Markets Smirked At Bessent’s Buybacks
The problem with Scott Bessent’s rationale for upsizing US Treasury buybacks is that it’s a
Failure’s Not An Option
The phrase “failure’s not an option” typically accompanies dire circumstances like, say, Operation Dynamo. No
Weekly: Scott’s Folly
Congratulations to Scott Bessent for hijacking the market narrative this week. There wasn’t much on
Did Bessent ‘Put’ Us Back On The Road To QE?
Why? And why now? Those were the main questions floating around markets a day on
Watch Out For ‘Two Key Things,’ Albert Edwards Says
There’s a crisis brewing, according to SocGen’s Albert Edwards. He’d know. He’s seen all manner
Bessent Bails Out The Bonds
Earlier this week, I suggested Scott Bessent had a burgeoning PR problem. On Monday, the
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