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Category: Markets

Cloudy With A Chance Of Zero

October 14, 2026October 15, 2026

“Yikes.” That was my reaction to Wednesday’s US CPI report, which showed inflation across the

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22 Comments on Cloudy With A Chance Of Zero

BofA Hit By Fine, Trading Slump. Wealth, Equities Shine At Morgan Stanley

October 14, 2026October 15, 2026

Bank of America on Wednesday reported results that fell short of consensus on both the

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The Chips Are Down Again

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

Remember CXMT? If not, don’t worry: I didn’t either. I had to use my own

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10 Comments on The Chips Are Down Again

They Want 6%, Scott

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

6%. On 10s. That’s what it’s gonna take to tempt professional capital allocators to rotate

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5 Comments on They Want 65, Scott

Meanwhile, At Goldman: More, More, More

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

To say Goldman’s stock traders have had a good 2026 would be an understatement, and

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1 Comment on Meanwhile, At Goldman: More, More, More

JPMorgan Results Are Decent Enough

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

The House of Dimon reported earnings that missed estimates on Tuesday. That’s not something you

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3 Comments on JPMorgan Results Are Decent Enough

Still Cashing In

October 12, 2026October 13, 2026

There’s a lot of cash on the proverbial sidelines. Still. There’s still a lot of

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3 Comments on Still Cashing In

Who’s Afraid Of The Big, Bad Unknown?

October 10, 2026October 12, 2026

One of my least favorite charts was back in the news this week. Plotting any

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3 Comments on Who’s Afraid Of The Big, Bad Unknown?

Weekly: Are Stocks Really Whistling Past The Graveyard?

October 9, 2026October 12, 2026

Yes, the S&P managed to post a new record close (the first since August 13

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Reprieves

October 8, 2026October 9, 2026

Don’t worry. Donald Trump’s not going to kill off an “entire civilization” tonight. Nor tomorrow

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15 Comments on Reprieves

Bombs, Brent And Breakevens

October 8, 2026October 9, 2026

“A whole civilization will die tonight.” Or maybe tomorrow night. Sometime before the midterms. Maybe

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5 Comments on Bombs, Brent And Breakevens

Halle-freakin’-lujah

October 7, 2026October 8, 2026

It goes like this, the fourth, the fifth The minor fall, the major lift… Hallelujah.

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2 Comments on Halle-freakin’-lujah

SpaceX The Hyper-Scaler

October 7, 2026October 8, 2026

SpaceX is gonna need to borrow some more money. Several tens of billions more, reportedly.

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11 Comments on SpaceX The Hyper-Scaler

SPX Moon?

October 6, 2026October 7, 2026

If the S&P can manage new records up near 7,825 with 10-year Treasury yields at

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4 Comments on SPX Moon?

AI And Oil: America’s Historic Profit Bonanza Rolls On

October 6, 2026October 7, 2026

You know things are going well when corporate America’s expected to report profit growth of

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Burn, Baby, Burn

October 5, 2026October 6, 2026

Europe’s ungovernable. Breaking news, I know. On Monday, an already fraught political environment took a

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2 Comments on Burn, Baby, Burn

Weekly: The ‘Humiliation’ Trade

October 3, 2026October 5, 2026

I’d like to buy long-end US Treasurys right now. And I did, both this week

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29 Comments on Weekly: The ‘Humiliation’ Trade

Railroaded

October 2, 2026October 5, 2026

In terms of concentration risk, the AI trade’s now on par with the largest bubbles

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15 Comments on Railroaded

Bonds At The Breaking Point

October 1, 2026October 3, 2026

Have we given up trying to call the top in G7 bond yields? Because if

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17 Comments on Bonds At The Breaking Point

¡Viva La Revolución!

September 30, 2026October 1, 2026

Long live the revolution! If there were any doubts as to whether memory will remain

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2 Comments on ¡Viva La Revolución!

1999, 2007 And 2026?

September 30, 2026October 1, 2026

Albert Edwards thinks the equity bull market’s reached “peak nonsense.” Critics would tell you Albert’s

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1 Comment on 1999, 2007 And 2026?

The Real Debate

September 29, 2026September 30, 2026

10-year real yields in the US are flirting with 3%, which is… I don’t know.

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6 Comments on The Real Debate

Anthropic IPO Prospectus: Taking An ‘Existential Risk’

September 29, 2026September 30, 2026

“Hello, I represent a privately-held company that intends to offer shares to the investing public

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27 Comments on Anthropic IPO Prospectus: Taking An ‘Existential Risk’

‘The Macro Backdrop’

September 28, 2026September 29, 2026

The bad news is, pervasive uncertainty around “the macro backdrop” — a polite euphemism for

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Former Bear Sees A Potential Problem For Stocks

September 28, 2026September 29, 2026

The outlook for US equities remains constructive, but a veritable collapse in a key measure

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2 Comments on Former Bear Sees A Potential Problem For Stocks

For Treasurys, A Month To Remember. And Forget.

September 27, 2026September 28, 2026

One way or another, September will be remembered as a pivotal month for US government

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4 Comments on For Treasurys, A Month To Remember. And Forget.

Here’s Hoping Past Isn’t Precedent

September 26, 2026September 28, 2026

With allowances for the pressing nature of concerns about the next phase of the Iran

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9 Comments on Here’s Hoping Past Isn’t Precedent

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • TebbyFresh on Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!
  • Caribbean Breeze on Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China
  • Lee 2253 on Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?
  • WeeblesWobble (ButTheyDon'tFallDown) on Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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