Two sessions, two new all-time highs.
In the first two frames of a split week, US equities notched their 30th and 31st records of 2024. If you’re a bear… well, thoughts and prayers.
Amusingly, that’s the average top-down equity strategist on Wall Street: A bear. At least if you classify anyone whose S&P target’s below current spot a bear. Headed into this week, the mean year-end forecast was SPX 5275. The benchmark closed more than 200 points better than that ahead of Wednesday’s US holiday. It’s just relentless.
If AI’s a bubble — which is to say if this market’s a bubble — then June 18 might live in infamy. This was the day Nvidia became the most valuable company on the planet, worth more than $3.3 trillion.
Jensen’s juggernaut was more valuable, according to markets anyway, than Microsoft or Apple. All hail Huang. Dan Ives said the three titans will race each other to $4 trillion over the next year.
“[The] real narrative lies in the software that complements all the hardware goodness,” Rosenblatt Securities’ Hans Mosesmann said, raising his price target on Nvidia to a Street high $200. “This software aspect will significantly increase in the next decade in terms of overall sales mix, with an upward bias to valuation due to sustainability,” he went on.
Seven years ago this month, Huang was worth a measly $3.6 billion on paper. He’s worth more than $115 billion now. His net worth’s nearly tripled in 2024 alone. If you were wondering, Nvidia insiders have sold shares worth nearly three-quarters of a billion so far this year.
The June installment of BofA’s Global Fund Manager survey, released on Tuesday, showed “Long Magnificent 7” retained the top spot on the most crowded trade list for a 15th month.
As the figure shows, conviction around the notion that mega-cap US “tech” is the most crowded trade on Earth increased materially, and at 69% counts among the highest levels in survey history.
“There have only been a handful of times when a single trade was more crowded,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett remarked. With one exception, those instances were all longs in US tech or growth shares in 2020.
In any case, if you’re a bear, what can I say? There’s always next week. It starts on Thursday.
It is insane. Luckily, I am on the right side of such insanity.
I am always prepared, however, for an unexpected and dramatic reversal- therefore, I keep my fixed costs under control. I will try to lock into gains at some point- but I put my chances of hitting the ATH to monetize such gains at less than 5%.
Sold at 131 two days ago after 40% gain in just over four weeks. Option expiry will be interesting. I’m hoping to buy back lower (go figure!) in July. Who knows? It may go down or up for ever!
I’m trying to convince a loved one who has made $3 Million off a $5K investment, who has only $200K of other assets, that they’ve lived the dream and it’s time to sell- all would be fine, but at least some. They’d have financial security the rest of their life if they sold it all and paid the taxes. If they wanted to lessen the taxes a little, they could sell a third and write deep in the money LEAPS for ‘25 and ‘26 with the rest and still have tons of security…. They are single with no kids. But they keep saying “I think it’s going to go up” and I don’t try and say they’re wrong, because that’s more likely than not- I just try to say financial security for life is the main goal and you e reached it- so live this dream and don’t look back!