Fund managers are the most bullish since the height of the so-called “everything bubble.”

That’s according to the June installment of BofA’s popular survey, which this month included responses from more than 200 pros with a collective $640 billion in AUM between them.

The figure below is the broadest fund manager sentiment metric from the poll. It aggregates cash levels, stock allocations and growth expectations.

We’ve come a long way since SVB, when fund manager sentiment troughed for the cycle.

That said, recall that the bank’s pseudo-famous “Bull & Bear Indicator,” a metric for global risk sentiment, isn’t extreme. At a middling 6.0, it’s still well below a contrarian “sell” signal.

But the bank’s cash rule, which says sell equities when fund manager cash levels dip below 4%, is very close to triggering, as shown below.

In the June poll, cash levels were right on the line after falling from multi-decade highs around 6.5% at the cycle lows for equities in October of 2022.

4% counts as the lowest since June of 2021. Fund manager cash allocations dropped nine points from May to a net 6% Underweight. That’s two standard deviations below the long-term average.

Although the share of respondents who see no US recession over the next 18 months declined, it’s still a majority, at 53%.

A mere 8% see a recession in the back half of this year, and only three in 10 see a downturn in 2025.

On the Fed, near eight in 10 see two, three or more rate cuts over the next 12 months, with a third of those in the two cuts camp, a third expecting three cuts and the rest more than three. 84% see short-term rates heading lower and nearly three quarters expect lower inflation.

“Higher inflation”‘s share of the biggest tail risk vote dwindled to 32% from 42% in May, while geopolitics and the US election captured more attention in the two and three slots, with 22% and 16%, respectively.

Asked which “policy areas” would be most impacted by the US election, no one said “rule of law.” Of course, it wasn’t an option.