Retail sales in the US rose less than expected last month, this week’s only top-tier macro release from the world’s largest economy showed.
Nominal spending managed a mere 0.1% advance, just a third of the uptick consensus expected. Notably, April’s headline was revised to show a 0.2% decline. March was revised lower too.
Taken at face value, this is more evidence to support a slowdown narrative. As I put it while previewing this week’s data docket, a miss “add[s] to a string of releases which together suggest the establishment survey in the jobs report has become an outlier — that notwithstanding the NFP headline and the seasonally adjusted AHE prints, the US economy’s decelerating.”
Five of 13 categories showed a decline, led by gas stations and building supplies. Food services & drinking places, the only services sector category in the release, fell 0.4%, reversing the prior month’s gain.
The ex-autos print showed a 0.1% drop for May against expectations for a 0.2% gain. The control group advanced 0.4%, not bad, but a miss nevertheless. Consensus wanted 0.5% there.
For what it’s worth, real retail sales haven’t gone anywhere for years.
I should note: That series isn’t distributed by the Commerce Department. In fact, it’s not an official “series” at all. It’s just the retail sales series deflated by CPI.
Frankly, Tuesday’s release could’ve been worse. I expected a bigger miss. The prints do bolster the slowdown story at the margins, but it’d be a stretch to spin a recession narrative based on these numbers, even as the control group was revised lower for April and March.
“In light of the disappointing start to the second quarter as evidenced by April’s headline print, there is mounting evidence that the pace of spending in real terms is facing growing headwinds as households continue to struggle with rising prices,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman said. “Even if the pace of inflation has moderated, prices are still increasing, not falling.”




I think best to look at the retail sales series deflated by goods CPI, since almost all retail sales are “goods”, save the relatively smaller portion that is eating and drinking establishments.