“Batshit crazy.” That’s me. Ask around. Somebody, somewhere will emphatically attest. But in 2025 I’m
Category: Markets
Gold’s Moment
Gold’s having a moment. Spot prices cleared $4,000 on Wednesday, green-lighting another round of mostly
Margin For Error
I guess I have to mention Oracle. Right? I mean, you can’t harp on potential
Schrödinger’s Equities Vol
What do you get when you combine moribund trailing realized vol with recently firmer implied
Justifiable Propaganda
I’m hittin’ the “bubble” theme pretty hard lately. Some of you are probably tired of
Chip Chasin’
They’re chasin’ it. The rally, I mean. If that sounds like a familiar opener (“Do
Hype Machine Volume: 11
OpenAI. Ever heard of it? The funny thing is, most people hadn’t until not so
Gold, Bitcoin And Breaching The Laugh Threshold
We might’ve (b)reached the “laugh threshold.” During the pandemic, I was a staunch defender of
Remember Nvidia?
In an October 4 piece for Bloomberg, Seth Fiegerman and Carmen Reinicke wrote, of the
Why The Stock Bubble Might Not Pop. Yet.
Why do cycles die? There are a lot of possible (plausible) answers, but one of
How The Stock Melt-Up Dies. Or Not.
I suppose it’s just as well we’re not getting a US jobs report on Friday.
‘By Far The Largest On Record’ (Bubble Tickets)
They’re grabbing for upside. Or buying lottery tickets. Or they’re just keen to ride a
Is The S&P ‘The New Risk-Free Rate’?
This time’s different. (Narrator: It’s not.) A couple of days ago, someone sent me a
Beware The Froth
Are you sharp-eyed when it comes to signs of market froth? Do you wake up
This Is Almost Surely A Bubble…
The f-cked up thing about asset bubbles is that although it’s easy enough to detect
Dollar Rebound Seen As Nascent Risk To Asset Bubbles
Do we really need those Fed cuts after all? That was the question for traders
‘Extreme 25s’ For The New ‘Roarin’ 20s’
Earlier this month, Vanguard sent me a helpful email reminder: “We noticed you’re holding cash
‘The Needle Was Threaded’
Say it with me: Financial conditions are easy. Now say it again. And again. Because
Alibaba’s 50% Rally Evokes Dangerous Phase Of Tech Hype Cycles
I’ll say it. I don’t care: The AI hype machine’s starting to look a lot
Some See Dot-Com Ghost In OpenAI-Nvidia Deal
Every week, there’s another AI capex boom story. Usually two or three. In the eyes
Gold Rush 2025
Gold. It’s had a helluva run. Croesus was really onto something. Typically, you have to
The Gin Pen
Antecedent: A vignette 12 years ago next month, I saw Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar at
Gas On The Fire: Models Say The Darndest Things
The standard line at the Fed, and certainly within the Trump administration, says monetary policy
Template: [Someone Has To Be Wrong]
Has anyone done a stocks versus bonds, “someone has to be wrong” chart lately? If
The Stock Rally, Inflation And The Midterms
Capitalism, and especially American-style capitalism post-1980, is an easy enough game to play. That’s certainly
Sky’s The Limit, Apparently
How many records is this by now? Equity records, I mean. I’ve lost count. September
Leave The Bubble Alone, Sir
Leave well enough alone. Wise words. If a bit hackneyed. I know a lot of
You must be logged in to post a comment.