“The only thing to fear is fear itself.”
“Let me in.”
“It has been too long. Way too long by the standards of its predecessors, and yet this credit cycle still shows few signs of an impending turn.”
“If you are adding to your long-term holdings of stocks and other risk assets at current market valuations, you are likely to be betting — knowingly or not — on a combination of three drivers of future returns; or you are planning to sell your holdings to someone who is or will be making that bet.”
Were you wondering where you need to be long as the low vol. regime drags into its 482nd year? I’ll answer that for you: no, you weren’t. Wondering that is. Because…
“It has only been flatter in only 20% of the trading sessions since the crisis.”
Although you’d be forgiven for asking where the “calm” was.
“…to all the Bitcoin fans and crypto-crazies out there, I’ve got good news: I’m siding with you on this one.”
“However, by 2008’s final quarter, corporate debt reached 523% of internal funds and the high-yield EDF soared to 10.33%. At the same time, a mild recession was turning into a global calamity.”
“In a financial world characterized by central bank front running and put issuing, being a swine has been acceptable behavior. You can play the part and not get slapped. However, as we start to seriously contemplate tapering or, dare I say it, normalizing, the risk becomes that the great passel of hogs does meet their prophesized fate and gets butchered.”
Paging 2 Chainz…
To be sure, traders and investors were left to cope with conflicting signals in the just-concluded trading week. For one thing, you never want to be completely out of risk assets in an environment where the central bank put is still in place. Underscoring that was Thursday’s ECB presser where Mario Draghi made a concerted…
Global central banks certainly haven’t succeeded in creating the type of robust recovery they ostensibly set out to facilitate in the wake of the crisis. At the very least, the coordinated effort in monetary insanity has taken a lot longer to “work” than its architects anticipated and that’s in no small part attributable to the…
I have absolutely no idea how any of that is sustainable and/or realistic.
Right, so the storm wasn’t supposed to come until next month.