It’s Russell reshuffle day, which means equities will likely be jarred out of any summer lull, if only for a moment. As Bloomberg notes, “in four of the last five years, reconstitution day ranked in the 10 busiest trading sessions, [but] at the same time, it rarely triggers big price swings in the market.” It’s…
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
Generally speaking, it was a quiet overnight session as traders look forward to a light calendar in the days ahead – or at least compared to the last two weeks. There was of course another “van attack” in the UK (“van attack” has become “a thing” now). Additionally, Monday marks the start of Brexit negotiations.…
“But the ECB is more than just a “passive acquirer” of assets, in our view. We think they are taking an active role in bond buying to manage the fallout from policy uncertainty (and prevent a tightening in credit conditions that would ensue if they didn’t).”
It’s Tuesday, and they’re voting in South Korea. There’s an annoying power vacuum over there at a precarious time. Here’s a deliberately deadpan rundown: Turns out the former president – Park Geun-hye – was bribing people and abusing her power and shit like that. She’s in jail and apparently is refusing to vote. So that’s fun. Turnout is…
Ok, so it’s Monday and France didn’t elect a fascist. So we’ve got that going for us. That said it looks like the Street got this one right – it feels like a “sell the news” event pretty much across the board. As documented earlier the euro gave back its knee-jerk to $1.1023 to trade all…
“The Euro went up a bit, down a bit and ended pretty much where it was last week. It faces two short-term challenges”…
“We are smarter than the Americans, true, but they have set the bar very low, no?”
Like father, like daughter. Crushed.
“The National Front rise is less impressive than these figures suggest.”
“And since we believe a Macron presidency has been embedded in market pricing since then, we do not expect his victory in today’s run-off to have a significant impact on markets from tomorrow.”
Assuming Macron does indeed carry the day, here are the two possible scenarios and what to expect, according to Barclays…
“DFRLab tracked the onset of the campaign to the Twitter account of Jack Posobiec. They also include @Languillem, which in March was the most active amplifier of Kremlin outlets RT and Sputnik in French, as the DFRLab has reported.”
“While it’s impossible to say which manifestation of populism anno 2017 will be the catalyst for events that will ultimately mark a dubious chapter in the history books, you can be certain that if the world keeps going down this road, something will eventually go terribly, terribly wrong.”
“That’s just not how it works.”
