“Coming fresh to a place where much of the discourse was accepted or assumed by the very smart economists on the FOMC and the Fed staff helped me to see where some of that received wisdom was not holding-up well in the circumstances we were facing.”
Category: fomc
How (Not) To Trade The Fed Chair Edition Of The Apprentice
“Take it all with a large grain of salt.”
Gross Says December Hike ‘A Slam Dunk’ As Earnings Blow Through Estimates
“And the market concurs.”
‘Volatility Would Return With A Vengeance’: Kocic Warns On Warsh And The Rebuilding Of The Fourth Wall
“However, giving up transparency and sticking unconditionally to policy rules, i.e. rebuilding the fourth wall, carries with it enormous risks.”
There Are No Atheists In Foxholes
“Here is my new prediction.”
Central Banks Have ‘Aided And Abetted Market Manipulation’: No One Read This Speech By Kevin Warsh
“The guild is unwise to treat financial markets as some beast to be tamed, cub to be coddled, or market to be manipulated. Too many policymakers appear in thrall to financial markets, and financial markets are in thrall to policymakers, but only one of them will get the last word.”
Dollar, Yields Jump As WSJ Says Trump Met With Warsh On Fed Job
“President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh on Thursday to discuss his potential nomination as the next Federal Reserve chairman.”
Transparency: The Dark Side
Ok, who’s ready to take another look behind the “fourth wall?”
‘Tell That To Rain Man’
“Either way, you gotta be super smart to run a country and sell vol. buddy, okay? It’s not easy.”
What The Heck Is Goin’ On?
“The truth of the matter is that the market doesn’t know how to interpret the Fed.”
1 Million.
“It’s not crazy”…
In 2020, It All Goes ‘Horribly Right’
“So hang in there, volatility longs. Only three more years ’til it all goes horribly right!”
Goldman Answers All Of Your Questions About The September Fed Meeting
Q: Will the FOMC hike the funds rate in December?
A: Yes, probably.
La, La, La.
Finally, in case you haven’t had enough of “connecting the dots” today, here’s another exercise for you…
Fed Decision: Highlights, Redline, Dots, Projections, Analysis
“Connect the dots”…
Apocalypse Now (Again).
Well for those who had their doom bunkers all prepped and ready, there’s “good” news on Tuesday – the apocalypse is back on.
‘We Fear Gold, Bonds, And Stock Prices May All Suffer A Sudden Drop’
“With the Fed’s balance sheet poised to contract and financial conditions set to tighten either steadily or abruptly, we fear gold, fixed income, and equity asset prices may suffer a sudden drop.”
Waving Goodbye To Our $4.5 Trillion Friend…
Nothing profound, just a retrospective as we wave goodbye to our $4.5 trillion friend…
Janet. Fed Preview
Good luck out there – your fate rests on the shoulders of a diminutive economist with a pixie cut…
How To Trade The Fed’s Big Announcement And Why There Won’t Be A ‘Tantrum’
Given the well-choreographed and gradual adjustment, we expect that asset markets will avoid another ‘taper tantrum.'”
This Is The ‘Trickiest’ Thing For Today’s Macro Traders
As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes, this is “a particularly acute issue for currency and bond traders,” but given the fact that the fate of the risk rally depends in no small part on whether policymakers exhibit an “appropriate” level of dovishness as they attempt to normalize, one could well argue that it’s even more “acute” for equity investors, especially considering the fact that the retail variety isn’t usually very informed and is thus subject to being unhedged and blindsided.
The Trump Eclipse Bottom
“I couldn’t agree more. I think Trump staring at the Solar eclipse was the bottom for his Presidency. After that, it’s all uphill. Seriously, there is so little expected of him, he is bound to outperform.”
July Fed Minutes: Highlights And Summary
Although several participants were prepared to announce a starting date for the program at the current meeting, most preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting while accumulating additional information on the economic outlook and developments potentially affecting financial markets.”
Presenting: A Crazy Week In Charts
Ok, well this was an interesting week…
A Dovish Fed Day In Charts
So “dovish” it was, or at least “dovish” was the market’s read on the Fed
Yields Fall Sharply As Treasurys Underpinned By Block Trade Amid ‘Wiggle Room’ Talk
“The descriptor ‘relatively’ gives policy makers some wiggle room in the event the labor market, inflation data, or possibly a debt ceiling crisis, gives the FOMC cold feet in September.”
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