This is important because the latest data is current through Tuesday which means it captures the aftermath of the Fed’s “dovish” hike that sent yields plunging or, more to the point, moved markets against the (very) crowded short Treasury trade.
Category: fed
No More Heroin: Your Visual Guide To The Global Central Bank Exit Plan
A couple of weeks ago, Citi’s Matt King discussed what is perhaps the best reason
Stock Selloff Goes Global
Investors “needed a good reason to take profit, and here it is.”
Trader Exclaims: “They Are Making This Up As They Go Along!”
“There’s comfort to lazing in the dark, as long as you can ignore the thought of what a sudden bright light might show is making those scratching noises.”
Euro Jumps To 6-Week High After Lunatic Loses Key Debate
We start Tuesday in Europe in the aftermath of the closely watched presidential debate at
As Treasury Yields Fall, Ask Yourself: How Long Are They Going To Let This Go On?
This seems like a good time to remind you that not everyone is buying the
“Politics Vs. Policy”: Deutsche Bank’s Resident Genius Warns Of “Binary Outcomes”
“Depending on the interplay of politics and policy — degree of political resolve and the Fed actions — we could see two distinct paths of resolution of the existing tensions in the mid- or long-run. “
4 Days Later: Previewing The Week Ahead
Well, it’s Sunday which, at last check, means tomorrow will be Monday and that means a
These Are The Fed’s Options To Avoid Another Taper Tantrum
” The 2013 “taper tantrum†also provides a reminder that the impact of balance sheet policy on financial conditions is uncertain and could be larger than our baseline estimate. We doubt the impact would be as large today—in 2013 markets misunderstood tapering as implying earlier rate hikes, whereas today markets would likely view earlier tapering as implying later hikes— but the risk is worth considering”
Sunday Humor? “One Good Reason To Hike Rates Is That It Makes It Easier To Cut Rates”
Boy, oh boy. We’ve really had to recalibrate the way we think about things in
Pray For Poor Data So Janet Yellen Can “Keep This Party Going”
“In our view, for the cycle to last another several years, we want to see more of the same – a continued environment of ‘ok’ growth and low inflation, which allows central banks to keep the party going.”
Central Banks Have “Learned A Lesson”: “Silence Is Golden”
There’s been no shortage of speculation about whether the Fed “got what it wanted” out
JP Merlin Returns: Kolanovic Says Buy The Dip
Remember back on Tuesday night when Goldman decided 19 hours before the Fed hike was
Presenting The “Real Bubble”
“We see real rates as extremely misvalued if not in a bubble. Real rates are far below (-2pp) levels implied by prevailing GDP growth rates, which have historically provided an anchor.”
One Bank Warns: “Markets Are Too Sanguine,” Fed Hikes Now More Likely
As noted on Thursday, there’s a tug-of-war developing between two competing narratives on US Treasurys. Here’s
Finally Friday: Oil Looks For Weekly Gain; EM, Euro Surge; Merkel Meets America’s Useful Idiot
Well, it’s quiet out there as an exceptionally eventful week (finally) winds down. As we
A Good Bottle Of Scotch Would Be Nice: Making Sense Of Market Nonsense
Thank God for four months of sobriety because the old Heisenberg would have been at the bottom of a good bottle of scotch right now…
China Slams “Selfish” Fed Hike, Warns Emerging Markets Still “Naked” At Low Tide
“In fact, for the United States, the dollar as the reserve currency of the biggest dividend, is the world can “cut leek” or cut wool. The US economy to weather the storm, the Fed will raise interest rates, a huge siphon effect to the dollar back, which is the first round of cutting cash, the US economy to weather, Second round cut wool.”
Trader: “Much More To Come” For Treasury Rally, Dollar Slump
“Everything about this meeting that could surprise dovishly, managed to do so. U.S. yields and the dollar have much further to fall as a result.”
Albert Edwards: Stock Market “Cannot Conceive” Of A Fed That Would Let S&P “Suffer Any Serious Damage”
“One reason why the market doesnÂ’t believe the Fed dots is that investors cannot conceive of Fed tightening to the point that it causes the stockmarket any serious damage.”
A Good News Type Of Day
Well damned if this wasn’t a good news type of day. We’d wager the only people
Mission Accomplished? Fed “Prevents A Hawkish Misinterpretation”
With the Fed having pulled off what looks like a Goldilocks hike, crushing Treasury shorts
Here’s What Changed: Fed Statement Redline, Word Cloud
Federal Reserve increases federal funds target range to 0.75% to 1%. Fed: inflation close to
One Trader Ain’t Buyin’ The Whole Treasury Short Squeeze Thing
“A market of this size will require a change of perceptions to be bullied for more than a very short amount of time by some short- covering. If people begin to think 10-year Treasuries are going north of 3%, do you really think there aren’t enough longs to fill in the bids?”
A Fed Hike Will Send Treasury Yields Higher Right? Not So Fast
Good hike, bad hike. That’s the game we’re playing on Wednesday and really, it’s more of
Behind The Curve? “Pussy-Cat” Yellen Confronts “Largest Dovish Policy Deviation Since The 70s”
Some folks will be talking about the Fed today. In just a few hours we’ll
6 Bullet Points Explain Why You Should Be Wary On Wednesday
On Monday in “These Charts Do Not Scream ‘Ready For A Super Aggressive Fed’“, we
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