“Do I have high conviction? Yes. For a reason.”
Category: fed
Tuesday In Charts: ‘Remember To What You Owe Your Good Fortunes’
“We think the timing would be good for investors too to remember to what they owe their improvement in fortunes”…
Solving The Mystery Of The Big 2Y Short: ‘It’s Too Damn Rich!’
But there may be a simpler answer still…
‘Trapped In The Waiting Room’
“There’s no reason why you can’t be trapped in the waiting room and still keep yourself occupied and have a bit of fun.”
‘Well What If There Is No Tomorrow?’: Fed, Kushner, And Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, it’s Sunday evening at HR, and you know what that means…
Gradually And Then Suddenly
“But, hey, we’re hitting our numbers just fine as it stands and, if you hadn’t noticed, our stock price hit a new high yesterday. Why mess up a good thing?”
Here’s Something That Will Never Happen, But Probably Should…
“The only thing it will accomplish is forcing, as well as encouraging, investors to carry on with the types of trades every right-minded observer thinks has a large element of recklessness.”
Risk-On Still Intact As Entire World Ignores China Stock Plunge: Full Visual Recap
All told, the mood remains “risk-on.”
Deutsche Bank: ‘The Limit Is Near’
“This episode provides a good example of just how difficult the eventual path to policy normalization is going to be.”
Stocks Fly To Records, Global Risk Rally Continues As Bad Data, ‘Good’ Yellen Keep Hope Alive
The message is loud and fucking clear: the vol. seller’s/ carry trader’s paradise and the risk party that’s made every homegamer with some SPY and QQQ look like a guru for the past eight years depends on DM central bankers staying some modicum of dovish. And on that score, bad data helps.
Stocks Dare The Fed
“This puts the Fed in a terrible place”…
‘Yellen Is Not A Bubble Popper’: One Bank Is Sick Of ‘This Narrative’
“But it is not true that the Fed is hiking to address vulnerabilities in the financial system or “pop†asset bubbles.”
Investors Flee To Super-Safe Nasdaq As Rate Hike Odds Fall After CPI Miss
“Guess what people immediately did? Why, they fled to the “safety” of overvalued, high-flying tech stocks, that’s what they did.”
Trader: ‘Everyone Is Wrong But Me’
“And now? Dovish Fed speak, wavering ECB leaks, resolute BOJ actions, completely mixed emotions from the BOE and suddenly it doesn’t feel nearly as fun.”
Dow Closes At Record High – So Does Central Banker Confusion
So yeah, another day, another largely fruitless effort to figure out what exactly the message
Trader: ‘Conspiracy Theories’ Only Work If Everyone Sticks To The Script
“But they seem to cling to the notion that they must do so without any knock-on effects to the broader category of assets. They do so love the calming sounds from the trickle-down effect.”
‘The End Result Are These Violent Whipsaws’: Don’t Think Too Hard
“This Fed transparency has become more of a liability than an asset. Instead of providing policy clarity, it creates confusion as various factions of the Federal Reserve board debate their positions in a public forum.’
Stocks Surge On ‘Good Cop’ Yellen; Trader Makes ‘Unprecedented’ $10 Million Bond Bet
Well, the message from Yellen was heard loud and clear and amusingly, so was the
One Trader’s Advice To Yellen: Get Your Motherfuckin’ ‘Roll’ On…
“I’d settle for here’s what were going to do because it’s the right thing to do. And we’ll deal with what comes if necessary, that’s how we roll.”
‘Beware Global Tapering’: Behold The ‘Safe Bond Supply Shock’
What effect will Fed balance sheet normalization have on Treasury yields? That’s quickly becoming something
‘They Immediately Bought Dollars’: Traders Get Confused, Drive Yen To March Lows
Well, the overnight session was described as “listless” by at least one Asia-based trader as
One Trader Is Already ‘Outraged’ And It’s Only Monday
“I’m also outraged.”
Hedge Funds Now Most Net Short 2Y Since 2007
Yeah so, this is worth noting as you ride off into the weekend sunset..
Fed Minutes: Key Points And Highlights
Read them, parse them, take them to your local palm reader…
‘The Ultimate Negative Feedback Loop’
“With asset prices so well correlated to financial conditions now, being too hawkish – and instigating market tantrums – creates the ultimate negative feedback loop.”
Mind The ‘Transatlantic Convergence’ Theme
“One of the things we hear discussed a lot is that an inverted yield curve tends to be a good predictor of recessions, but that’s because it comes at the same time as peak Fed Funds, and ‘peak tight money’ is a good predictor of recessions for more obvious reasons.”
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