Bad news: Good news. The first of this week’s sparse US economic data was inconsistent
Category: economy
It’s The Quiet Weeks That Get You
The data docket is a bit sparse in the US this week, and Fed officials
America’s Cheap Labor Addiction Revisited
[Editor’s note: Historically, I haven’t run many articles more than once, not because there aren’t
Larry Summers Sketches The Coming Recession
On the eve of a jobs report which argued for the persistence of an overtly
Payback And Back Pay
Big tech isn’t the US economy, folks. A few ostensible “experts” seemed surprised Friday by
Jobs Report Is (Very) Bad News For Fed
The US economy added more jobs than economists anticipated in November and wage growth rose
Macro Riddle Has Just One Solution
The recent rally in equities in part reflects the market front-running an eventual negative payrolls
Good. Bad. What’s The Difference?
Bad news. Good news. What’s the difference these days? It’s hard to say in an
Same Picture, Different Data
The BEA handed markets a generally cooperative set of data on Thursday, one session on
Why The Fed May Have To Relent, According To Marko Kolanovic
“Until late summer, we thought corporate and consumer resilience [would] be able to withstand the
Powell Delivers 2,400-Word FOMC Statement
Jerome Powell was pretty specific on a number of key points in prepared remarks for
In Housing: ‘Difficult Months’
News sections on real estate websites read like obituaries these days. Not so long ago,
‘Normal’ Still Elusive In US Labor Market
Good news: There are less available jobs in the world’s largest economy. That doesn’t sound
Manufacturing Payrolls Plunge As Private Sector Hiring Decelerates
US private sector employers added fewer jobs than anticipated in November. At 127,000, the headline
In Europe, A Sight For Sore, Irrelevant Eyes
Rejoice! The rate of annual price growth in Europe decelerated this month by the most
The Tragedy Of America’s $3.5 Trillion In ‘Extra’ Savings
Back in June, I told readers the “sad, sad story” of $3 trillion in pandemic
Blame Gas Prices?
US consumers felt incrementally worse this month about their economic prospects. That’s according to a
Overthrowing Xi Could Mean The End Of The World
I assume this is obvious, but what’s obvious to me isn’t always clear to the
Mourning Lost Mayhem
I assumed (wrongly, perhaps) that in the era of “everything analytics” brought to you by
Lags And Stepdowns
The word “lags” came up nine times in the November FOMC minutes, released into a
Saying One Thing, Doing Another
“Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, attitudes have also been weighed down by rising
Americans Keep Mortgaging Their Lives Away
Incorrigible Americans, spurred on by some combination of rate buy-downs and FOMO, bought more brand
Burn The Playbook
Congratulations. You’ve borne witness to macro history. I won’t trouble readers with the usual semantics.
Stagflation, Stochasticity, Simplicity
The consensus is that stagflation is the consensus. The awkward wording there is intentional. At
Why This Time Is Different
This time is different. Or, actually, this cycle is different. The first of those two
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