Guess what? China’s decision to roll back strict pandemic curbs didn’t lead to a surge in economic activity across the world’s second-largest economy in December.

Au contraire, Xi’s haphazard, overnight dismantling of an epidemic control regime built and maintained over three years prompted a sharp contraction in the services sector, according to PMI data released on Saturday.

The official non-manufacturing index printed a wildly disappointing 41.6, the lowest since the dark days of February 2020 and nowhere near consensus, which expected 45. The manufacturing gauge missed too, dropping to 47.

Remember: These are the official, government-certified gauges. The situation is probably much worse than they suggest.

Under the hood, the manufacturing component indexes were abysmal. Gauges of production, new orders and new export orders all fell to the lowest since Q2, when the economy came to a standstill amid an aggressive effort to arrest a surge in infections.

The non-manufacturing gauge covers both services and construction. The latter remained firmly in expansion territory (even as it sank to a seven-month low), but the services-only gauge dropped to 39.4.

It was notable (to say the least) that the services sector contraction associated with the lifting of virus curbs this month was deeper than that associated with the Shanghai lockdown earlier this year. The new orders subindex for the services sector dropped to just 37.4.

The dismal data underscored the dilemma for the Party. Xi’s “COVID zero” strategy was long past its sell-by date, but by delaying the inevitable even as vaccines and therapeutics caught up to the virus, Beijing might’ve instilled among the populace a sense of dread that, by late 2022, was out of proportion to the actual biological threat. If that’s even a little bit true, the participation of low-risk demographic cohorts in the services sector may be depressed relative to what it would’ve been had China opened up sooner and not kept the public under lock and key for years after the rest of the world moved on. Do note: That assessment is coming from someone (me) who was a staunch supporter of lockdowns in 2020. Xi wasn’t (necessarily) “wrong.” He just ran into the same problem that’s almost always associated with the decision to double- and triple- down on something that’s controversial: It becomes very difficult to backpedal without having to explain yourself. Xi isn’t a man who’s inclined to explain himself.

The other side of the dilemma revolved around the very real biological threat that COVID still poses to China. Because the country didn’t import an mRNA vaccine and hasn’t deployed the advanced shots developed by domestic producers, the risk of severe disease is presumably higher, even with the less aggressive variant. At the same time, the vaccination rate for the elderly was relatively low when Xi lifted the lockdowns. Daily cases were running in the tens of millions last week, according to various reports. In major cities, half the population was feared infected. Tests of passengers on international flights from China seemed to corroborate those estimates. Projections suggested some 300 million people might’ve caught the virus nationwide in December.

There were no good options for Xi, but protests forced his hand. Now, the country is grappling with an overburdened healthcare system and what appears to be widespread self-isolating (tantamount to boycotting the services sector). That, with external demand for Chinese exports slowing as the developed world stares down what many economists believe are guaranteed recessions in 2023.

The glass half-full narrative says the reopening boom is just postponed — that it’ll play out on a delay, perhaps in February and March. That’s as good a guess as any (by then, I assume Chinese will have collectively developed quite a bit of natural immunity), but it’s worth noting that travel during the Lunar New Year holiday could easily exacerbate the spread and thereby the prevalence of severe disease, perhaps pushing the economic recovery a few additional weeks (or months) into 2023.

During his annual New Year’s address, Xi said China has “now entered a new phase of COVID response where tough challenges remain.” “Everyone is holding on with great fortitude, and the light of hope is right in front of us,” he added. “Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”