If you read any overdramatized market wraps produced by mainstream financial media outlets headed into Tuesday, you might’ve worried Jerome Powell was poised to deliver a veritable death blow to any lingering good vibes engendered by last week’s “Goldilocks” US jobs report. After all, the December FOMC minutes contained an unusually explicit reference to the counterproductive nature of stock rallies vis-à-vis the inflation fight.
However, if you took a few minutes to read about the event Powell was participating in on Tuesday, your anxiety level would’ve been greatly reduced.
“[The] Riksbank is organizing an international symposium to mark the end of Stefan Ingves’ time as governor,” Sweden’s central bank explained, in a press release almost two months ago. “Senior central bank officials and prominent academics will participate in four panels that address central bank independence from various angles — climate, payments, mandates and global policy coordination.”
So, basically, Powell was participating in a retirement party for Ingves. That’s not typically the kind of event where one endeavors to trigger a stock market selloff.
Granted, the topic was central bank independence, and policymakers are beset from both sides of the political spectrum currently. The right is keen to fault central banks for “letting” inflation run away from them, and the left is preemptively assigning blame for a recession that hasn’t happened yet.
In that context, there was certainly room for Powell to inadvertently upset risk assets if he leaned too hard into the independent theme. But he didn’t. His speech was very short, wholly unexciting and, if I may, pretty hollow. To wit, from Powell’s remarks:
The case for monetary policy independence lies in the benefits of insulating monetary policy decisions from short-term political considerations. Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy. The absence of direct political control over our decisions allows us to take these necessary measures without considering short-term political factors. I believe that the benefits of independent monetary policy in the US context are well understood and broadly accepted.
In a well-functioning democracy, important public policy decisions should be made, in almost all cases, by the elected branches of government. Grants of independence to agencies should be exceedingly rare, explicit, tightly circumscribed, and limited to those issues that clearly warrant protection from short-term political considerations.
With independence comes the responsibility to provide the transparency that enables effective oversight by Congress, which, in turn, supports the Fed’s democratic legitimacy. At the Fed, we treat this as an active, not passive, responsibility, and over the past several decades we have steadily broadened our efforts to provide meaningful transparency about the basis for, and consequences of, the decisions we make in service to the American public. We are tightly focused on achieving our statutory mandate and on providing useful and appropriate transparency.
We often describe the Nixon experience as an aberration, but that’s not really accurate. The notion of an independent central bank is relatively new. Indeed, in the long arc of human history, it’s fair to say the concept of an independent monetary authority not directly and explicitly beholden to the political class is a very recent idea, at least as far as ideas with broad-based buy-in across locales go.
So, when you think about Nixon, it’s probably more accurate to describe that sordid episode as an especially (and unacceptably) egregious example of politicized monetary policy, not as some sort of deviation from the historical mean as we knew it at the time.
In any case, Powell knows a lot about this, not because he’s a scholar, but rather because he served as the central bank chief for America’s only autocratic president. Donald Trump began assailing Powell during the trade war and didn’t stop until the pandemic forced the Fed into unprecedented emergency interventions.

Subsequently, Powell came under fire for allowing inflation to accelerate. The optics were made worse by the Fed’s adoption of flexible average inflation targeting in August of 2020, a decision predicated, in part anyway, on a Progressive view of the Phillips curve. Now, Powell is under attack from the likes of Elizabeth Warren, who worries the most aggressive Fed hikes in a generation are poised to drive the economy off a cliff.
Powell, then, could say a lot about central bank independence if he really wanted to. But paradoxically, doing so would be to traffic in political rhetoric and thereby risk undermining the message.
On Tuesday, he said simply that the Fed “must continuously earn [its] independence by using our tools to achieve our assigned goals of maximum employment and price stability, and by providing transparency to facilitate understanding and effective oversight by the public and their elected representatives in Congress.”
Now everybody bid Stefan Ingves a fond farewell.


The fed chairman is like a thermonuclear weapon- if you use it the deterrent is gone….
Is “Central bank independence” an objective or a subjective concept?
While I appreciate the nod to independence, he didn’t fare well last time that independence was tested. I worry he’ll crumble in the face of attacks again this year.
I believe Powell succumbed to Trump’s bullying and intimidation by maintaining the monetary stimulus for too long as Congress passed major fiscal support…now I’m hopeful Yellen will nurture and nudge him where the country needs him to be…
If you consider the argument that Powell kept policy lose longer than needed in order to secure re-nomination (I find some merit in this view), then we get the other side of the Fed “independence” coin. Perhaps Powell and the committee truly believe in central bank independence from near term political pressure, the problem is that we lack a protection mechanism from the internal and very real pressures born in a desire to advance personal agendas and careers. The heart of a technocrat can lead policy stray as much as the ambition of a politician can, in the end we all pay the price, independence comes in multiple flavors.
“the problem is that we lack a protection mechanism from the internal and very real pressures born in a desire to advance personal agendas and careers.”
I have questions about Jim Bullard in that regard.
Planet Money did a show about “Fed Independence Day”. It has a memorable anecdote about how Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin stood up to LBJ and asserted the independence of the Fed.
LBJ was recovering from a broken arm at his ranch in TX. He summoned McChesney to give him a piece of his mind for raising rates against his “orders”. LBJ is no slight man, and at one point became so angry that he lifted McChesney by the collar and held him against a wall while he yelled at him.
McChesney didn’t back down, of course. The legitimacy of the Fed was at stake so he couldn’t reverse the decision if he wanted to.
Here’s the podcast:
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/699560367