Macro-market headlines out of the US were inauspicious at the end of what, notwithstanding a
Category: economy
‘The Bessent Put’
On January 31, 2024, when he was still managing private capital as opposed to the
‘Many’ Fed Officials Reckon Inflation’s A Problem
“Several” participants at last month’s FOMC meeting wanted to raise rates in light of what
China’s Looming Crisis
I’m wary of the word “unsustainable” in the macro-market. It has an air of imminence.
Poof! The Homebuyers Just Vanished
Whaddya get when you “add” up record-high home prices, elevated (in the post-GFC context) mortgage
Summer Minutes
This’ll be a relatively quiet week on the macro front, leaving the onus for excitement
24 Weeks Later
Again and again since the pandemic, I find myself returning to the idea that what
Awful Consumer Sentiment Release Is Midterm Warning
It’s a miss! Another one. And it comes with a warning for the White House
Control Issues!
Uh-oh. A key measure of underlying demand surprised to the downside in Friday’s update on
Wholesale Inflation Rolls Over, Further Bolstering Fed Doves
Another day, another benign inflation readout for a Fed chair who’d very much like to
Oops: Home Sales Plunge To Two-Year Low In America
Good news! I’m being sarcastic already. Typically, if you see me use an exclamation point,
Warsh Gets Another Break As US Inflation Tame
Inflation across the world’s largest economy was relatively tame last month, consistent with economists’ forecasts,
If It Weren’t For The War…
Activity in America’s perennially beset resale housing market was “remarkably stable” last month, the NAR
Inflation Tallies Seen Emboldening Fed Doves
In the days ahead, Kevin Warsh will likely get more excuses to hold off on
The US Jobs Market Just Cracked
And just like that, the odds of a Fed hike in September diminished meaningfully. The
Kevin Has A Dream
I’m not sure it’s the kind of print you’d expect in a “renaissance,” but US
I’m Sorry, Dave
If you work at a company dedicated to developing advanced AI models, or if your
Wherever I Lay My Hat
I suppose this goes without saying, but the highest US mortgage rates in a year
Manufacturing > Services?
The marquee gauge of activity in the biggest part of the world’s largest economy suggested
US Private Hiring Cools Sharply, Pay Gap Widens
Private sector hiring in the US decelerated sharply in July even as employers added jobs
‘It’s The Earnings, Stupid’
US equities were a hair’s breadth from setting new records early this week. If you’re
US Manufacturing Gets Best Health Check In Four Years
The 2026 expansion across America’s formerly beset manufacturing sector broadened meaningfully in July, the first
Summer Jobs
It’s jobs week in America. Who’s excited?! Nobody. Nobody’s excited. Because it’s the first week
Weekly: Warsh’s Instant Credibility Crisis
What’d we learn this week? Three things, I reckon. First, we learned markets don’t necessarily
Old, Good News
Underlying price growth on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric decelerated sharply in June from the
Underlying Demand Very Strong, US GDP Report Suggests
The US economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter, as net trade
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