53.3.

That’s my IQ after spending 15 minutes on Wednesday scrolling through Donald Trump’s TruthSocial feed.

It’s also the ISM manufacturing headline for June, when US factory activity expanded for a sixth consecutive month. Consensus wanted something closer to 54.

As the figure reminds you, America emerged in 2026 from a years-long factory downturn with an assist from the AI buildout. (Semis are a leading indicator for the ISM headline.)

Under the hood, the new orders index slipped from May, missing estimates in the process, but at 56, it still tips relatively healthy demand. The production gauge moderated to 52.2.

Most notably, the price index — which soared during three months of war with Iran — decelerated, falling 9ppt to a still-scorching 73.

No one’s going to pretend 73’s comfortable. But any relief on ISM’s measure of input cost pressure is welcome.

Also encouraging: The employment index rose to 49.7, the highest of Trump’s second term, and on the verge of expansion territory.

At the risk of stating the obvious, a >70 prices / <50 employment conjuncture’s hardly ideal. It’s still indicative of stagflation. But as the second figure above shows, we’re at least moving in the right direction on both fronts.

Not surprisingly, the panelist anecdotes betrayed lingering concern about the war.

“The conflict in Iran has impacted pricing in every category of raw materials,” someone in Chemicals remarked. A respondent in Computer & Electronic Products said the war’s “resulting in a more conservative approach to capital expenditures.”