To say the macro docket’s limited in the new week would be an understatement.

In the US, there’s virtually nothing on it. Nothing other than ISM services and an update on existing home sales.

The ISM print will be notable in the context of lackluster leisure and hospitality hiring in June, when the sector lost the most jobs since 2020, according to the BLS’s tally.

Consensus is looking for 54 from the ISM headline. That’d be a slight downshift from May, but anything comfortably in expansion territory will be deemed acceptable.

Assuming a >50 print for the services gauge this week, both ISM headlines will have spent a sixth straight month in expansion territory together.

Macro watchers will be hoping for some relief on the prices index accompanying the release. That gauge spent every month of the Iran war above 70. Its counterpart on the factory side receded sharply in June, albeit to still high levels.

The ISM services employment gauge hasn’t printed above 50 since February. The BLS report didn’t appear to bode well in that regard, but the government’s jobs tally was viewed with skepticism last week.

On Wednesday, the June FOMC minutes will tell us why half of participants in last month’s policy gathering expect to raise rates this year. Oh, wait, we already know the answer to that question: Because headline inflation sports a four-handle.

Market participants will also been keen for any color around the decision to overhaul the policy statement, and for additional details on Kevin Warsh’s “task forces” — that term will continue to get scare quotes from me until Warsh proves his expert panels are something other than the farce I suspect them to be.

Recall that the market reaction to the June FOMC suggested Warsh’s debut was a hawkish epoch the likes of which hasn’t been seen since “Tall Paul.” I think that’s ridiculous given the political pressure Warsh is under.

At the same time, I understand why markets priced it the way they did: The dot plot, which didn’t “benefit” from a Warsh submission, was unequivocally hawkish.

Expect one of Kevin’s “task forces” to find an excuse for getting rid of the dots later this year. The SEP, at least, is a place Warsh’s experts won’t have to look very hard to find a plausible excuse for breaking with standard operating procedure. No one likes the dots, and the macro projections are in some cases worse than useless.

I’d be remiss not to note that it’s possible Warsh will insist on overhauling the FOMC minutes such that they too (i.e., like the policy statement) are more “concise.” Or less forthcoming. However you want to look at it.

For what it’s worth, market pricing now reflects one “full” Fed hike plus ~25% odds of a second by year-end.