“Whatever could be wrong?” the pollster inquired, of the downcast American head of household.

A lot, as it turns out. For one thing, headline inflation sports a four-handle again, and just like last time consumer price growth was breaking out to the upside, The White House and the Fed chair say it’s transitory. Here’s hoping.

Conference Board confidence undershot expectations for June in Tuesday’s update, which found the headline printing a disappointing 91.2, up slightly from the prior month, but only because May’s headline was revised lower (to 90.6 from 93.1).

As the figure reminds you, these readouts are terrible. When we use words like “improved” to describe an uptick from the previous month, we’re splitting hairs, even when the prior readings aren’t revised lower, as May’s was.

The present situation gauge dropped meaningfully in June’s release to 116.4, nearly 7ppt below estimates and the worst in — checks notes — 64 months.

On the bright side, the expectations index hit a six-month high at 74.4, but even that was below estimates and we’re still more than 5ppt away from the 80 threshold, readings below which typically presage recessions.

Most notably, the labor differential halved from May, to 2.4. Like the present situation index, that (key) metric’s now at a 64-month nadir, and the month-to-month drop was the most pronounced since “Liberation Day.”

The figure above shows you the share saying jobs are “hard to get.” It was the highest this month since January of 2021.

That makes for a rather “interesting” juxtaposition with Tuesday’s JOLTS release, which suggested there were more open jobs than unemployed Americans on the last business day of May.

Whatever. No one cares how they feel as long as they’re still spending.