The first rule of holes is that when you’re in one, you stop digging. US
Category: economy
US Households Offer No All-Clear For Trump
After soaring in June on hopes the Trump administration will ultimately settle for less draconian
US Homebuilders Remain Depressed As Price Cuts Proliferate
Did you hear the good news? That “big, beautiful,” budget-busting regressive tax cut Republicans just
Plunging Jobless Claims, Robust Retail Sales Argue Against Rate Cuts
Do you want a roaring economy or do you want rate cuts? Because you can’t
Wholesale Inflation Negligible In The US
Wednesday’s only tradable US macro update sent mixed messages about pipeline price pressure. On the
Economists Wrong Again As Core Inflation Tame Despite Tariffs
“LOWER THE RATE!” Shouted a livid Donald Trump, somewhere. Underlying price growth undershot expectations again
Chinese Economy On Track To Hit Growth Target, Beijing Swears
Surprise! The Chinese economy expanded fast enough in Q2 to keep the full-year growth target
With Trump’s Help, China Racks Up Record Trade Surplus
So much “winning.” How can you stand it? Draconian US tariffs and pressure on America’s
Where’s The Tariff Inflation?
It’s a pretty busy week in the US, where traders will parse key inflation updates,
Trump’s Impossible Tariff Math
What fiscal crisis? The US ran a surprise surplus in June, according to the monthly
Code Red As Russ Vought Goes After Jerome Powell
The US is venturing into very, very dark waters vis-à-vis central bank independence. On Thursday,
Plunging Jobless Claims Rebut Rate-Cut Calls
The US labor market’s fine. “Solid.” “Resilient.” Any synonym for “sturdy” will work. Thursday’s sole
Some Folks Bought Some Homes
They were buying homes in America over the last week. I don’t know who “they”
Chinese Economy Continues To Ice Over
China’s still struggling to resuscitate domestic demand. In case that was your burning question mid-week.
What Could Go Wrong? Summer 2025 Edition
What could go wrong? Snarky macro commentators with misplaced pretensions to cleverness are quite fond
Letters And Deadlines
“We’re going to start sending letters out to various countries tomorrow.” So said Donald Trump
‘Solid’ US Jobs Report Is Optical Illusion
The US economy added more jobs than expected last month, and you can thank state
Decent PMI Headlines Belie Underlying Stagflation
The last of this week’s top-tier US macro releases sent mixed messages about the largest
Private Hiring Slams Into Reverse As ADP Headline Goes Negative
Private sector employers in the US — that’d be the businesses on whose shoulders job
2025 Is Worst Year For Job Cuts Since Pandemic
There was good news and bad news from Wednesday’s monthly update on job cut announcements
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since ‘Liberation Day’ Can’t Break Housing Gridlock
Quick, refi! Mortgage rates in the US slipped below 6.80% on the MBA’s gauge in
Trump Tax Bill Hands Richest 0.1% A $120,000 Annual Raise
You gotta hand it to Republicans: Four decades on from the Reagan Revolution, they’ve distilled
Restaurant, Hotel Job Openings Soar Second-Most Ever
Don’t look now, but job openings across the US economy just jumped the most since
Another Month, Another Discouraging Read On American Manufacturing
US manufacturing activity contracted again last month amid subdued hiring and pervasive upward pressure on
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