Trivia time: How many daily SPX moves of +/- 1% have we seen since the
Category: Duly Noted
Why ‘You Cannot Take Your Hedges Off Now’
Grinding, low-vol melt-ups are painful when you’re hedged for downside. And the summer just ended
Froth! Record Share Of Money Managers Say Stocks Overvalued
Do you suspect the S&P might be overvalued, trading as it does on a 23x
How The Cost Of Labor Impacts US Corporate Profits
Were you curious as to the sector-by-sector breakdown on labor costs as a share of
There’s An ‘Invisible Hand’ Keeping Stocks At Records
There’s an “invisible hand” at work and I don’t mean Adam Smith’s thoroughly exhausted metaphor
Acrophobia
It’s a good thing valuations and market concentration aren’t reliable predictors of near-term equity market
Don’t Say It Out Loud
Wall Street’s beginning to think the unthinkable. And to say it aloud, just not always
In US Housing: An Emergency
As a general rule, you don’t want to be spending more than a third of
‘The Ultimate Dip-Buyer’
I remind readers of this whenever the opportunity presents itself: The biggest source of demand
The Deals Are Falling Through
“We also agreed to increase the one-time membership fee from $—- to $—-,” read the
How Realistic Are Wall Street’s 2026 S&P Margin Forecasts?
If I told you corporate profit margins were likely to hold up better than feared
Skew (Still) Has A Story To Tell
Cautious. That’s something I won’t blame you for being. I spent some time being cautious
Capex, Good Or Bad?
Capex, good or bad? It depends. Good, generally. Or at least that’d be my assessment.
US Labor Productivity Improves, Jobless Claims Move Up
Good news: Productivity improved across the US economy and unit labor cost growth moderated, according
Margin For Error
If you’re a corporate, the simplest way to “mitigate” tariffs is to raise prices to
US Labor Costs Are Warming Up Again…
For whatever it’s worth, the Fed’s preferred measure of labor costs in America rose more than
Pending Home Sales Disappoint As America’s Housing Malaise Persists
Contract activity in the beleaguered US housing market slipped in June, partially reversing the prior
Time To Hedge?
The S&P came into Tuesday having gone 16 straight sessions without an up or down
Don’t Hate The Players, Just The Game
Don’t hate the player, hate the game. Like most pithy maxims, that old adage prescribes
What A Weak Dollar Means For Corporate Bottom Lines
These are the sessions — hot summer sessions when everybody who’s anybody is on vacation
What’s The Bet?
It’ll all work out ok in the end. That’s how US equities — which powered
Nihilists, Dude
Much has been made of the idea that retail investors comprise a bigger share of
Impugn The Imputation?
If the question’s whether we can trust the inflation data, the answer is, was and
And The Most Crowded Trade Is…
Quick: What’s the most crowded trade on the planet? This is an easy one. You
Margin Risk, Not Valuations, Is Biggest Source Of Stock Uncertainty
One argument against the idea that Donald Trump’s tariffs will manifest in higher consumer prices
‘Too Late’?
I’m not much for stating the self-evident. It seems like a waste of time. Mine
Market Breadth Warnings Are Back
We’re back to fretting over market breadth. It’s an all-too-familiar concern for US equities, and
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