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Category: Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Soar As Turkey Distortion Disappears

December 11, 2025December 12, 2025

The holiday-impacted plunge in initial US jobless claims was an anomaly. Who could’ve known? Last

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US Hiring Registers A Pulse, Small Business Worry Grows

December 9, 2025December 9, 2025

Good news: The trend in US private sector hiring improved late last month. That was

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1 Comment on US Hiring Registers A Pulse, Small Business Worry Grows

Holiday-Impacted Claims Plunge Is Meaningless

December 4, 2025

Mind the holiday distortion. I’ll say it again: Mind the holiday distortion. I’m not necessarily

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Green Shoots? US Home Purchase Apps Hit 33-Month High

December 3, 2025

Don’t look now, but a key measure of purchase activity in the still-beset US housing

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Behold: Rent Deflation

December 2, 2025December 3, 2025

Good news for America’s renters. That’s something I don’t say very often. Maybe I shouldn’t

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4 Comments on Behold: Rent Deflation

Spare A Thought For America’s Impoverished Retail Workers

November 26, 2025December 1, 2025

As Black Friday approaches and America enters the holiday shopping season, spare a thought for

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7 Comments on Spare A Thought For America’s Impoverished Retail Workers

Meanwhile, In US Housing…

November 25, 2025November 25, 2025

Good news, although I realize most of you aren’t here for that. Contract activity in

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Forlorn US Housing Can’t Catch A Damn Break

November 19, 2025November 19, 2025

They’re, um, still struggling to buy the homes. “They” is any American who wants a

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2 Comments on Forlorn US Housing Can’t Catch A Damn Break

AI Bubble Tail Risk Rises Sharply Among Fund Managers

November 18, 2025November 18, 2025

It feels like this should go without saying by now, which is why I relegated

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1 Comment on AI Bubble Tail Risk Rises Sharply Among Fund Managers

Are Traders Front-Running The Leveraged ETF Rebalance?

November 13, 2025

Way back last week (time flies when you’re over 40), I casually mentioned that leveraged

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3 Comments on Are Traders Front-Running The Leveraged ETF Rebalance?

Tradeoffs

November 12, 2025

Don’t worry about AI demand. It’s robust now and will be for the foreseeable future.

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6 Comments on Tradeoffs

Tech Downside Likely Amplified By Leveraged Stock ETFs

November 7, 2025November 7, 2025

Earlier this week, I highlighted (or re-highlighted is more apt given the number of times

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1 Comment on Tech Downside Likely Amplified By Leveraged Stock ETFs

In US Housing, Turnover’s Never Been Lower

November 4, 2025November 4, 2025

America’s resale housing market remains woefully — perennially, even– beset. Closings have managed just a

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Lower Mortgage Rates Fail To Revive Moribund US Housing

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

Flat. That was contract activity in the US housing market last month. Wednesday’s sole, lonely

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5 Comments on Lower Mortgage Rates Fail To Revive Moribund US Housing

America’s Inflation-Adjusted Housing Wealth Shrinks Again

October 28, 2025October 28, 2025

Don’t look now, but America’s housing wealth declined a third straight month in inflation-adjusted terms.

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1 Comment on America’s Inflation-Adjusted Housing Wealth Shrinks Again

Gold.

October 24, 2025

F-ck gold. It’s worthless. Who’s mad already?! I’m kidding, I’m kidding. Mostly. I just can’t

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5 Comments on Gold.

‘If This Was A Normal Cycle’

October 22, 2025October 22, 2025

In “This Time Was Different” I talked at some length about the uniqueness of the

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Rich But Not Crazy

October 17, 2025October 17, 2025

Rich but not crazy. That’s global equities. Bubble coverage took a backseat to cockroach coverage

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Risk Taking And Sell Signals

October 14, 2025October 14, 2025

Strange as this sounds, a fixture of the equity melt-up to a succession of new

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2 Comments on Risk Taking And Sell Signals

Trading Short, Playing Catch-Up

October 9, 2025October 9, 2025

“Why have equities been trading short?” That’s what JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wants to know. Whenever

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US Home Purchases Are Still Falling Through At Record Rates

October 8, 2025October 8, 2025

US housing. It’s — what word should I use? — complicated. That’s a (very) polite

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2 Comments on US Home Purchases Are Still Falling Through At Record Rates

Wall Street Versus Main Street: It’s Complicated

October 3, 2025October 3, 2025

True or false: The stock market = the economy. True or false: Wall Street =

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1 Comment on Wall Street Versus Main Street: It’s Complicated

Can De-Globalization Be Good For Corporate Profits?

September 30, 2025

Maybe globalization wasn’t such a great idea after all. That’s been the rallying cry for

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6 Comments on Can De-Globalization Be Good For Corporate Profits?

Kindling Present: No Matches Allowed

September 24, 2025September 24, 2025

Trivia time: How many daily SPX moves of +/- 1% have we seen since the

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Why ‘You Cannot Take Your Hedges Off Now’

September 23, 2025September 23, 2025

Grinding, low-vol melt-ups are painful when you’re hedged for downside. And the summer just ended

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2 Comments on Why ‘You Cannot Take Your Hedges Off Now’

Froth! Record Share Of Money Managers Say Stocks Overvalued

September 16, 2025September 16, 2025

Do you suspect the S&P might be overvalued, trading as it does on a 23x

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2 Comments on Froth! Record Share Of Money Managers Say Stocks Overvalued

How The Cost Of Labor Impacts US Corporate Profits

September 15, 2025September 15, 2025

Were you curious as to the sector-by-sector breakdown on labor costs as a share of

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6 Comments on How The Cost Of Labor Impacts US Corporate Profits

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Hell Or High Fashion

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