It’s a good thing valuations and market concentration aren’t reliable predictors of near-term equity market
Category: Duly Noted
Don’t Say It Out Loud
Wall Street’s beginning to think the unthinkable. And to say it aloud, just not always
In US Housing: An Emergency
As a general rule, you don’t want to be spending more than a third of
‘The Ultimate Dip-Buyer’
I remind readers of this whenever the opportunity presents itself: The biggest source of demand
The Deals Are Falling Through
“We also agreed to increase the one-time membership fee from $—- to $—-,” read the
How Realistic Are Wall Street’s 2026 S&P Margin Forecasts?
If I told you corporate profit margins were likely to hold up better than feared
Skew (Still) Has A Story To Tell
Cautious. That’s something I won’t blame you for being. I spent some time being cautious
Capex, Good Or Bad?
Capex, good or bad? It depends. Good, generally. Or at least that’d be my assessment.
US Labor Productivity Improves, Jobless Claims Move Up
Good news: Productivity improved across the US economy and unit labor cost growth moderated, according
Margin For Error
If you’re a corporate, the simplest way to “mitigate” tariffs is to raise prices to
US Labor Costs Are Warming Up Again…
For whatever it’s worth, the Fed’s preferred measure of labor costs in America rose more than
Pending Home Sales Disappoint As America’s Housing Malaise Persists
Contract activity in the beleaguered US housing market slipped in June, partially reversing the prior
Time To Hedge?
The S&P came into Tuesday having gone 16 straight sessions without an up or down
Don’t Hate The Players, Just The Game
Don’t hate the player, hate the game. Like most pithy maxims, that old adage prescribes
What A Weak Dollar Means For Corporate Bottom Lines
These are the sessions — hot summer sessions when everybody who’s anybody is on vacation
What’s The Bet?
It’ll all work out ok in the end. That’s how US equities — which powered
Nihilists, Dude
Much has been made of the idea that retail investors comprise a bigger share of
Impugn The Imputation?
If the question’s whether we can trust the inflation data, the answer is, was and
And The Most Crowded Trade Is…
Quick: What’s the most crowded trade on the planet? This is an easy one. You
Margin Risk, Not Valuations, Is Biggest Source Of Stock Uncertainty
One argument against the idea that Donald Trump’s tariffs will manifest in higher consumer prices
‘Too Late’?
I’m not much for stating the self-evident. It seems like a waste of time. Mine
Market Breadth Warnings Are Back
We’re back to fretting over market breadth. It’s an all-too-familiar concern for US equities, and
As America Hits ‘Debt Wall,’ Get Ready For Shorter Cycles
What happens to business cycles when fiscal policy’s constrained such that it can’t act as
Foreigners Are Still Saying ‘No Thank You’ To US Stocks, Bonds
In “US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?” I recapped H1 equity fund flows on the
A Quarter To Remember
Here’s hoping you bought the dip. US equities on Monday closed out Q2 with a
Miki Delivers
Miki Bowman’s paying off for Wall Street already. Just weeks after assuming a role which
Could The Fed Surprise With A July ‘Insurance’ Cut?
As discussed here on Tuesday morning, I think the odds of a Fed cut at
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