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Margin Risk, Not Valuations, Is Biggest Source Of Stock Uncertainty
One argument against the idea that Donald Trump's tariffs will manifest in higher consumer prices fo
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It has always made more sense to me that the tariffs would be split more evenly by producers/importers and the consumer. Maybe 50/50, or 1/3rd each if the foreign exporter is also realizing a large drop in demand. The problem then is that everyone faces higher costs/expenses, demand drops–along with profit margins–deflationary spiral begins, GDP declines, jobs are lost, corporate and income tax revenues decline, and demand for public services increases. FED rate cuts may help for a time, but will ultimately prove inflationary. That’s stagflation, no? Where is the win in that?
There has never been a win for the US in anything that Sir Donald does.
The other issue here is that the tariff rate to date does not appear to be the final tariff rate. Could be the increase from here does get passed on to the consumer. Will get to the data just as everyone is shopping for those dolls.
“But Trump’s not just any US president. Rather, he’s the type of guy who’ll bring the power of the presidency to bear upon anyone seen as inimical to his agenda. Raise prices if you want, but you better hope he doesn’t find out about it”
We may have a case study of sorts unfolding right before our eyes. Jensen Huang is giving the administration and Congress a big old middle finger when it comes to chip sales to China. How will everyone react?