The vast majority of bank clients are confused about the resilience of stocks in 2023,
Category: Duly Noted
High-Altitude Hallucinations
Late last month, in “Plane English,” I expressed something akin to exhaustion with market participants’
Where To Now For Corporate Profits?
Analysts have rapidly cut profit forecasts for corporate America, even as the breadth of negative
Suddenly, People Are Asking The Bigger Macro Question
The “structural shift” discussion as it relates to long run rates in a new macro
In Munich, China Scolds US, Harris Decries Putin
48 hours prior to the convening of the Munich Security Conference, I offered a gentle
How Extreme Is 2023’s Bullish Sentiment Shift?
Notwithstanding tentative signs of exhaustion over the past two weeks, the story of 2023 in
A ‘Pure Markets Guy’ Explains The Fed’s Inability To Tighten
I’ve spent quite a bit of time lately on the r-star discussion. It’s important, and
The Fed Is Angry. And The Dollar Is Back
The Fed’s mission is “very much unaccomplished.” That’s according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett, but more
‘Expect More, Not Less Geopolitical Tension’
News out of Eastern Europe was predictably foreboding on Thursday. Kyiv says it’s being forced
Cash For Haters
If you “hate” stocks, you’ll love cash. Admittedly, this story feels a bit tired, but
The Market Is Becoming ‘More Vulnerable,’ One Bank Warns
Nobody would blame you for suggesting market sentiment outran the fundamentals during the opening weeks
Macro Tension And 0DTE: Why Stocks Are ‘A Mess’
Equities are an “untradeable mess.” That’s apparent to anyone trying to trade them. The maddening
Russia Commits 97% Of Military To Ukraine As Fund Managers Worry
If you were wondering just how pot committed the Kremlin is to Vladimir Putin’s imperialist
China’s Middle East Pivot Is Hard To Ignore
Whenever the “petroyuan” comes up (which is quite often these days), I’m always keen to
What The US CPI Report Means For Fed Policy
Like every other monthly inflation update out of the world’s largest economy, Tuesday’s US CPI
Wanted: Selloff Catalyst In Lieu Of Profit Recession
To some market participants, it probably feels like the earnings recession call (the “profit reckoning”)
What’s Really Behind The Yield Curve Inversions?
Every day, someone, somewhere cites the yield curve (pick a curve, any curve) to argue
Did Everything Change Earlier This Month?
“It will likely take a few months for the true underlying trends to emerge.” That’s
Investors Pull Billions From US Stock Funds Despite Rally
Although US equities were off to a roaring start in 2023, it was apparent during
Stocks Under A ‘Micro’scope
It won’t surprise anyone to learn that stocks have been more macro-driven than average over
Why Markets Could Be A Fireworks Show Next Week
The range of possible policy outcomes is expanding in the US. I assume this is
Biden Planning Major New China Investment Curbs
Under intense pressure from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, the Biden administration is
60/40’s Revenge
Last year was a veritable disaster for pretty much any version of the vaunted 60/40
Disinflation… If You Can Keep It
Party over! US mortgage rates are rising again. I’m just joking. Well, rates did rise
Claims About Jobs
A week later, market participants are still asking questions about an anomalous US jobs report.
Chinese Balloon Part Of Global Military Spy Program: US Officials
The Chinese surveillance balloon Joe Biden shot down last week was part of a global
Half-Empty
It’s hard to know whether to cheer slower consumer credit growth in the world’s largest
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