Nearly two years on from the last round of stimulus checks, the US consumer has held up better than feared.

Indeed, January’s increase in nominal spending was the largest since… well, since the last round of stimulus checks.

We can debate what’s behind resilient consumption. Maybe it’s credit cards. Americans had nearly $1 trillion in plastic debt as of Q4. Maybe it’s home equity. Americans tapped HELOCs aggressively late last year. Maybe it’s savings buffers. The savings rate is now near record lows after surging during the early days of the pandemic.

It’s also possible that sheer force of will is behind consumers’ refusal to retrench. Americans have an uncanny knack for finding ways to spend money — even when there’s no money left anywhere. Whatever’s to “blame,” consumers aren’t tapped out yet.

As a quick aside, recall that banks are tightening card standards aggressively just as pandemic cash reservoirs run dry.

It’s with all of the above in mind that I wanted to mention commentary on Tuesday from Walmart and Home Depot, who didn’t exactly inspire much in the way of confidence. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say they reinforced the notion that the broad economic outlook is very cloudy.

Although Walmart blew away estimates for Q4, analysts were decidedly cautious, and comps guidance for fiscal 2024 came up short, as did the EPS guide.

Walmart’s obsessive focus on low prices means margins will be a touchstone for analysts until there’s more clarity on the macro environment. CFO John David Rainey suggested no such clarity is forthcoming. Macro concerns came up again and again on the call Tuesday.

“As we sit here today, we [have] a lot of conviction and excitement around [the progress we’re making], but there’s a lot of uncertainty with the macro backdrop,” he told JPMorgan’s Chris Horvers. “We see issues where delinquencies are up in things like auto loans [and] you’ve got savings rates that are coming down,” he went on, mentioning the pace of Fed hikes, and fretting about “a lot of unknowns in the back half of the year.

Below, find David Rainey’s longer assessment, again from Tuesday’s call:

While the supply chain issues have largely abated, prices are still high and there is considerable pressure on the consumer. Attempting to predict with precision these swings in macroeconomic conditions and their effect on consumer behavior is challenging. As such, our guidance reflects a cautious outlook on the macro environment, but at the same time, our excitement about our recent results, momentum in all segments and progress on our strategy both for this year and the years that follow. We are positioned well and convicted about our plan. In FY ’24, we expect operating income growth to outpace sales growth. Given the persistence of high prices and the potential for further macro pressures, we are taking a cautious outlook for the year.

Again, that sounds like a CFO who, while confident in his capacity to navigate choppy waters, doesn’t have much in the way of conviction around what seamonsters and gales might lie ahead.

“While the strong Q4 headline beats are encouraging, general merchandise weakness and continued trade-down provide evidence that we are not out of the woods from a macro standpoint yet,” RBC’s Steven Shemesh wrote.

Home Depot, meanwhile, projected flat sales and lower earnings due in part to “moderati[ng] home-improvement demand” amid economic “cross-currents.” The company also unveiled an extra $1 billion investment in its hourly, frontline staff.

CEO Ted Decker described the compensation increases as a positive step towards improving retention and enhancing the customer experience. Which is great. But shareholders are a fickle bunch that’ll gladly trade long checkout lines for a few basis points of margin — or at least on weekdays. When they’re the ones standing in those lines on Saturday it might be another story.

The company’s decision to increase pay reflects the broader trend across the economy, and underscores many a “macro regime shift” narrative centered in part on higher wages for everyday people — and everything that might entail for inflation, nominal growth outcomes and monetary policy going forward.

“We harken back to our values and what our founders said,” Decker told Guggenheim’s Steven Forbes. “If we take care of our associates, they take care of the customer and everything [else] takes care of itself.”

If only it were that simple, Ted.