We withstand all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, blackouts, and cold. We are stronger than that. It was a year of resilience. A year of care. A year of bravery. A year of pain. A year of hope. A year of endurance. A year of unity. The year of invincibility. The furious year of invincibility.

With allowances for the idea that leaders embroiled in existential armed conflicts can’t betray signs of weakness or otherwise adopt a conciliatory cadence when the bullets are still flying, the passage quoted above doesn’t suggest Volodymyr Zelensky is keen on the idea of ceding ground to Vladimir Putin as part of any negotiated settlement.

Zelensky on Friday delivered a characteristically impassioned, overtly defiant, speech to mark the one-year anniversary of the day Russia invaded his country, instantly transforming the career comedian into a wartime commander, a role he’s embraced with remarkable gusto.

He was keen to remind Ukrainians that military analysts from around the world generally expected Kyiv to fall within a week of the Russian incursion. “They threatened that in 72 hours we would not exist, but we survived the fourth day. And then the fifth. And today we have been standing for exactly one year,” he said. “And we still know: Every tomorrow is worth fighting for!”

What’s often lost on Western audiences is that notwithstanding the self-evident fact that everyone tires of seeing their fellows and family members maimed and killed, and while Ukraine is everywhere and always asking its allies for more (more everything, whether it’s guns, tanks, ammunition or money), Zelensky is keen on winning this war, with or without anyone’s help. And, generally speaking, his people are with him.

Too often, Western observers seem to lose track of that when we implicitly conflate “limits” on arms shipments and the end of “blank check” policies with discussions around a negotiated settlement that entails ceding the Donbas (for example). It’s entirely possible (indeed, it’s virtually guaranteed) that Zelensky is going to fight until somebody loses — until either Putin succeeds in installing a puppet regime in Kyiv or until every Russian military unit is pushed back into Russia.

Either way, the West needs to prepare to spend more on defense. If Putin wins, Ukraine becomes Belarus and China is emboldened. That’d mean NATO pondering “Who’s next?” and Washington asking “When?” vis-à-vis Taiwan.

If Zelensky wins, Putin is embarrassed, left to brood inside the Kremlin, while Xi is forced to contemplate whether he might be similarly humbled if the PLA tries to cross the Strait. That wouldn’t be the end of it, where “it” means everything. The West would have to rearm, restock and prepare. Moscow would want revenge. And Beijing would be profoundly unsatisfied with an outcome that leaves its “no-limits,” “rock-solid” strategic partner humiliated.

Again: Either way, Western economies need to be on a war footing. Or at least making preparations that would allow for domestic industry to support the war machine if necessary. That, along with pretty much every other war dynamic, is inflationary.

The tables above from BofA demonstrate the extent to which hot wars are conducive to hot price growth.

“[On] the one-year anniversary of the war, no side [is] thus far showing much interest in peace,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote. “War = inflation and the de-globalization theme = higher rates,” he added.

“I want to address those who are still waiting,” Zelensky said Friday. “To our citizens who are now under temporary occupation I say that Ukraine has not abandoned you, has not forgotten about you, has not given up on you. One way or another, we will liberate all our lands.”