“The de-dollarization of the financial system will not be an overnight event.”
Category: dollar
Apocalypse Now (Again).
Well for those who had their doom bunkers all prepped and ready, there’s “good” news on Tuesday – the apocalypse is back on.
‘We Fear Gold, Bonds, And Stock Prices May All Suffer A Sudden Drop’
“With the Fed’s balance sheet poised to contract and financial conditions set to tighten either steadily or abruptly, we fear gold, fixed income, and equity asset prices may suffer a sudden drop.”
Watching Paint Dry. Illogically.
As one reader put it earlier today, “is just being open for trading” a good enough reason for stocks to rally?Â
You May Have Had A Better Week Than Some Quants
…it’s fair to ask if maybe the CTA crowd had a bad week. Because long Treasurys and short USD wasn’t exactly how one would have wanted to be positioned ahead of the “no apocalypse” risk rally that saw 10Y yields rip 18bps higher off the previous Friday’s lows while the dollar put in one of its best five-day stretches of 2017.
Them’s Fightin’ Words.
There’s tension in the air.
CPI Beats, Dollar, Yields Jump
CPI rose 0.4% vs est. 0.3%
Forecast range from up 0.2% to up 0.4% from 76 estimates
Ex. food, energy up 0.2% vs est. 0.2%
CPI y/y rose 1.9% vs est. 1.8%
Presenting: An Indispensable Dollar Checklist
There have been all sorts of labored attempts to explain how this isn’t all Trump’s fault and because nothing is ever entirely attributable to a single factor, those efforts are not totally in vain. That said….
You Should Have Just Gone To The Bar.
Generally speaking, this week’s theme (reflation back on in the U.S. as stocks, the dollar, and yields all rise in tandem) held, as there was no news “bigly” enough to change the narrative.
Breaking: September 25 Is The New Date For Abject Failure On Tax Reform
Well, fast forward another five months and we’re supposed to believe that all will be revealed in less than two weeks.
‘Investors May Have Wandered Into A Casino Without Realizing It’
So one hopes investors are cognizant of the possibility that they are chasing an EM FX rally more than they are “investing” in emerging markets with this trade.
Just Make Sure You’re Hedged.
You’d probably be wise to do the same.
Make Risk Great Again.
Now stay tuned to find out if Kim bought some VXX today on the cheap so he can fire off an ICBM this evening and make a few million to put towards his next H-bomb.
No ‘Apocalypse Now’, But Maybe Later – Full Week Ahead Preview
This week’s market-moving events are likely to be unscheduled. Remember, Irma is still a catastrophic natural disaster even if it didn’t quite turn into a scene out of a bad Jake Gyllenhaal movie. And as the above mentioned Ben Purvis notes, “Kim Jong Un [could decide] to inject himself into the conversation again,” at any time.
Dollar, Futs On The Rebound Early As Irma, Kim ‘Disappoint’
Everyone’s worst fears “fail to materialize.”
One Bank’s Advice: ‘Stay Long Gold’
Gold’s recent rally has of course reignited the eternal debate about the relative merits of owning largely useless pieces of metal as a “hedge” against the end times. But perhaps more important than the debate about whether it makes sense to own something that can’t be eaten or burned as protection against a scenario that leaves us all living in Cormac McCarthy’s The Road, is the question of where real rates are headed…
‘The Clocks Stopped At 1:17’…
Ok, get ready.
For now, the fiscal-chaos-can has been kicked, Harvey is behind us, and North Korea’s latest nuclear test has come and gone.
But dead ahead is Irma’s landfall in Florida, North Korea’s “founding day” (which by most accounts will be “celebrated” with an ICBM launch), and of course, more gridlock in D.C. We are, figuratively and literally, in the eye of the storm on Friday.
One Bank’s Stark Warning: King Dollar Is In Serious ‘Trouble’
Following last night’s bloodbath, you might be asking yourself if it’s time to call the
Wipeout: Dollar Crashes Across The Board
Dear lord: the pressure on the dollar is unrelenting.
It looks like no one wants to be the idiot that’s long USD headed into a weekend that could see a catastrophic hurricane strike on Florida and another ICBM launch for North Korea.Â
Ok, So What Now?
Just one more day of this before the weekend, when we’ll all get to put up the plywood and hide in the basement as Irma turns Florida into Atlantis and Kim turns Tokyo into Dresden…
Dollar Drop Accelerates As Fed Uncertainty Weighs
So as Bloomberg notes, markets were “slightly disjointed overnight with various factors driving individual assets,” but you do want to keep an eye on the dollar here because it looks like the Cohn news combined with Stanley Fischer’s resignation is weighing on the greenback.
Boris The Bullet-Dodger.
Seemingly unwilling to risk any further damage to his already low approval ratings, Trump ultimately
Death By A Thousand Cuts.
The bottom line is that between another powerful hurricane approaching the U.S. mainland, U.S. markets catching up with their global counterparts in terms of pricing in North Korea after the long weekend, the DACA decision which portends more bickering in Washington, and the looming debt ceiling debate (with the specter of a technical default showing up in today’s decidedly poor 4-week bill auction), it was death by a thousand cuts.
Currency Havens For Millennials – And No, Not Bitcoin…
“Sure, they’re unlikely to seek shelter in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies just yet, not even Millennials. But they may well prefer a haven basket that includes more”…
‘Good Luck, We’re All Counting On You’: Full Week Ahead Preview
To be sure, whatever you thought was going to dominate the news flow in the week ahead is probably going to take a backseat to North Korea, for obvious reasons.Â
But North Korea isn’t the only thing on traders’ minds this week. Not by a long shot.
Harvey, The Debt Ceiling, And Why It Might Be Time To Fade The Pessimism
If you were following along last week, you know that more than a few commentators
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