“There’s an oft-quoted cliche that the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over expecting a different result.”
Category: dollar
3 Reasons Goldman Thinks ‘Trump Trade’ Part Deux Is For Real
Hooray! The “Trump trade” is back! Not really. I mean, it is. I guess. Assuming
Here’s What’s Really Going On: ‘A Machiavellian Read’
“One school of thought is that they have played their cards exceptionally well this year in the FX market.”
‘Believe Me.’
What could go wrong?
A Hard Narrative To Ignore…
“Never mind that the tax plan will struggle to get through congress and don’t worry that the Fed might be making a policy mistake. Those are issues for another time, not this week.”
‘Keep One Eye On Left Field’: Here Are The Most Important Q4 Market Themes
“As always, keep one eye on left field for the “unknown unknown” that could shift the market’s thinking.”
What, No Nukes?
There’s always tomorrow.
Monday Bloody Monday.
There will be blood.
‘Tell That To Rain Man’
“Either way, you gotta be super smart to run a country and sell vol. buddy, okay? It’s not easy.”
1 Million.
“It’s not crazy”…
La, La, La.
Finally, in case you haven’t had enough of “connecting the dots” today, here’s another exercise for you…
Dollar On The Move, EM Under Pressure As Fed Holds Firm On Trajectory
Dollar bears on the back foot all of the sudden…
Dollar, Yields Rise While Stocks, Gold Dip On ‘Hawkish’ Fed
The Fed still sees another hike in 2017, perhaps proving that they are in fact leaning in the direction of looking through subdued inflation in the interest of safeguarding financial stability.Â
Apocalypse Now (Again).
Well for those who had their doom bunkers all prepped and ready, there’s “good” news on Tuesday – the apocalypse is back on.
‘We Fear Gold, Bonds, And Stock Prices May All Suffer A Sudden Drop’
“With the Fed’s balance sheet poised to contract and financial conditions set to tighten either steadily or abruptly, we fear gold, fixed income, and equity asset prices may suffer a sudden drop.”
Watching Paint Dry. Illogically.
As one reader put it earlier today, “is just being open for trading” a good enough reason for stocks to rally?Â
You May Have Had A Better Week Than Some Quants
…it’s fair to ask if maybe the CTA crowd had a bad week. Because long Treasurys and short USD wasn’t exactly how one would have wanted to be positioned ahead of the “no apocalypse” risk rally that saw 10Y yields rip 18bps higher off the previous Friday’s lows while the dollar put in one of its best five-day stretches of 2017.
Them’s Fightin’ Words.
There’s tension in the air.
CPI Beats, Dollar, Yields Jump
CPI rose 0.4% vs est. 0.3%
Forecast range from up 0.2% to up 0.4% from 76 estimates
Ex. food, energy up 0.2% vs est. 0.2%
CPI y/y rose 1.9% vs est. 1.8%
Presenting: An Indispensable Dollar Checklist
There have been all sorts of labored attempts to explain how this isn’t all Trump’s fault and because nothing is ever entirely attributable to a single factor, those efforts are not totally in vain. That said….
You Should Have Just Gone To The Bar.
Generally speaking, this week’s theme (reflation back on in the U.S. as stocks, the dollar, and yields all rise in tandem) held, as there was no news “bigly” enough to change the narrative.
Breaking: September 25 Is The New Date For Abject Failure On Tax Reform
Well, fast forward another five months and we’re supposed to believe that all will be revealed in less than two weeks.
‘Investors May Have Wandered Into A Casino Without Realizing It’
So one hopes investors are cognizant of the possibility that they are chasing an EM FX rally more than they are “investing” in emerging markets with this trade.
Just Make Sure You’re Hedged.
You’d probably be wise to do the same.
Make Risk Great Again.
Now stay tuned to find out if Kim bought some VXX today on the cheap so he can fire off an ICBM this evening and make a few million to put towards his next H-bomb.
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