CPI Beats, Dollar, Yields Jump

Ok, well here comes CPI in the U.S. and the setup was pretty interesting.

Yields continued to rise on Thursday morning, as Treasurys extended declines with a large block trade in 10Y futures spurring the downdraft, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, the “hawkish” (and I use that term loosely) BOE policy statement set the tone ahead of U.S. August inflation data. Have a look at 10Y yields, which rose above 2.21%, the highest since August 23:


Keep in mind that we were below 2.02 last Friday on 10s before the “no apocalypse” bond selloff/ risk relief rally started on Monday morning.

The dollar has of course rebounded this week as well, although it did dip into the CPI print apparently on reports that North Korea is readying a missile launch.


Without further ado, here are the estimates:

  • CPI 0.3% m/m; range 0.2% to 0.4% (76 estimates)
  • Core CPI 0.2% m/m; range 0.1% to 0.2% (73 estimates)
  • CPI 1.8% y/y; range 1.7% to 2% (44 estimates)
  • CORE CPI 1.6% y/y; range 1.5% to 1.7% (43 estimates)

And here are the numbers:

  • CPI rose 0.4% vs est. 0.3%
  • Forecast range from up 0.2% to up 0.4% from 76 estimates
  • Ex. food, energy up 0.2% vs est. 0.2%
  • CPI y/y rose 1.9% vs est. 1.8%

Finally, here’s the knee-jerk:



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