It’s probably nothing…
Category: 10Y
Daily Kickstart (Dollar In Focus As UK Court Rules; Lira Plunges)
On Monday evening I said I’d likely find myself talking about the dollar again first thing
Dollar Doldrums Continue Into Monday Evening As Reflation Trade Unwind Rolls On
Well, Monday ended the same way Monday began. For the early risers who catch the
Is The Record Treasury Short A Contrarian Indicator? This Scatter Plot Has The Answer
One of the most asked questions (well, I don’t have any data on that, but I assume a lot of people are asking) is this: is the record short a contrarian indicator?
Stocks Bore Me, But People Sure Do Love A Good Bullish Thesis
One thing to note at the outset: the idea that because piling fiscal stimulus atop an overheating economy is likely to drive inflation and therefore people will buy stocks, has a major flaw. Namely that if most of the “benefit” from fiscal stimulus goes to inflation and not growth, then it’s exceedingly likely that you’ll get a poor growth-inflation outcome (i.e. stagflation).
10 Black Swans
The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…
Trump: 3 Scenarios For Markets
Wondering how markets will perform under Trump? Of course you are. Since no one is sure
Daily Kickstart (The Day The Earth Stood Still)
The Ringling Bros. may have pulled up the stakes for good, but the circus is in town today in Washington, complete with all of the usual attractions including an orange elephant, who at 12 noon will “trump”et to an awestruck crowd.
Daily Kickstart (ECB Preview; Why Did Tarzan And Suicide Squad Suck So Bad?)
It feels quiet out there on Thursday morning. On Wednesday, a fairly potent one-two punch
Chart Check (Spot The Odd One Out)
Reflections on the reflation trinity…
Chart Check (A History Of Major Treasury Selloffs)
Ok look, it’s anyone’s guess where yields are going to be in 12 months. Rates
2016 Vs. 2017: YTD Returns
Anything would have been better than last year…
Is The Market Turning On The Man In The Blonde Wig?
And now, back to our regularly scheduled programming…
Massive Treasury Short Now At 4 Standard Deviations
If there’s one thing leveraged funds are damn sure of, it’s that short Treasurys is the way to go in the new year.
Heresy! Don’t Doubt The Narrative
It seems like I’ve been chained to this damn keyboard writing about 10Y yields and
Think The Great Bond Bull Market Is Dead? Not So Fast
Old bulls, like old habits, die hard.
Thursday Chart Check: How Far Are We From Throwing A “Tantrum”?
Needless to say, there’s been no shortage of speculation this year about yields and where
“It’s Like Living In The Roman Colosseum”: Reaction To Trump Presser Lacks Nuance
“If investors were left disappointed on details relevant to the economy and policies, it’s because no one raised the issues in any substantive way.”
Daily Kickstart (Dollar Doldrums)
Oh how the mighty (greenback) has fallen. The consensus trade of 2017 is having a rough
Visualizing A “Yield Crisis”
Bonds for the capital gains, stocks for the yield…
Sunday Chart Check (Who Wants To Be A Contrarian Edition)
Would you go against this grain?
Sunday Chart Check (Shock Absorber Edition)
One of the biggest stories of the past two months has been the sharp repricing
What Could Go Wrong?
If history is any guide, a lot…
“Violent Swings”: What Yellen, Greenspan, And Dimon Say About Rising Rates
Earlier today, I highlighted some recent commentary out of Deutsche Bank who lists among their
These Are The Two Main “Risk Scenarios” For Markets
There are a lot of things you can say about Heisenberg, but one thing you
(Re)Balancing Act Bolsters Treasurys Into Year End
One question going into a week in which the tape was painfully thin across the
Bank Of Japan’s Batshit Policy Prescriptions Explained In One Short Video
Summarized with a slightly modified quote from the video: “It remains to be seen if this crazy sh*t will work.”
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