The debate is on: is the great bond bull market over?
Post-election moves in 10Y yields and high hopes for the reflation trade (the “Trump bump”) have all but led a bevy of money managers to write its obituary.
But not so fast. According to the charts, the trend is still intact. Old bulls, like old habits, die hard.
10y UST yields rose over 90bp from the low on Election day to 15 December’s highs but have now retraced 28bp. Arguably, the post GFC downtrend in yields remains intact for now let alone the broader downtrend of the last 30y+.
(Chart: Bloomberg, Citi)