As noted on Thursday, there’s a tug-of-war developing between two competing narratives on US Treasurys. Here’s
Category: 10Y
A Good Bottle Of Scotch Would Be Nice: Making Sense Of Market Nonsense
Thank God for four months of sobriety because the old Heisenberg would have been at the bottom of a good bottle of scotch right now…
Why One Bank Is Still Bullish On Stocks (And Bearish On The Long End)
A tug-of-war is developing between two competing narratives on US Treasurys. On one side are
Trader: “Much More To Come” For Treasury Rally, Dollar Slump
“Everything about this meeting that could surprise dovishly, managed to do so. U.S. yields and the dollar have much further to fall as a result.”
A Good News Type Of Day
Well damned if this wasn’t a good news type of day. We’d wager the only people
Mission Accomplished? Fed “Prevents A Hawkish Misinterpretation”
With the Fed having pulled off what looks like a Goldilocks hike, crushing Treasury shorts
Treasury Bond Shorts Crushed As Yields Plunge
Told you so…
One Trader Ain’t Buyin’ The Whole Treasury Short Squeeze Thing
“A market of this size will require a change of perceptions to be bullied for more than a very short amount of time by some short- covering. If people begin to think 10-year Treasuries are going north of 3%, do you really think there aren’t enough longs to fill in the bids?”
A Fed Hike Will Send Treasury Yields Higher Right? Not So Fast
Good hike, bad hike. That’s the game we’re playing on Wednesday and really, it’s more of
“That’ll Work”: CPI Beats Ahead Of Fed
U.S. Feb. CPI Rose 0.1%, Above Est.
Retail sales less autos rose 0.2% in Feb., est. 0.1%
Behind The Curve? “Pussy-Cat” Yellen Confronts “Largest Dovish Policy Deviation Since The 70s”
Some folks will be talking about the Fed today. In just a few hours we’ll
“What Blizzard? It’s A Couple Of Flakes”: Markets In Cryosleep Ahead Of Snow, Fed, Geert
Welcome to day 2 of 2 in the pre-Fed, pre-Dutch election market cryosleep. Overnight we
These Charts Do NOT Scream “Ready For Super Aggressive Fed”
We don’t want to sound like a broken record, but …
Chart Check: “What Would You Do?”
I don’t want to set up a chart post with a strawman argument that posits a group of hypothetical investors beset with incredulity about Japan’s sudden penchant for selling US debt, but I’m going to do it anyway…
The First Week Of The Rest Of Your Life
Welcome to the first week of the rest of your life. By now you all
“Spillover”
If you were following along last week (well, I guess technically it’s still “this” week,
“Wait For Iiiit….” Crude’s Epic Collapse Is Warning Sign For Another Massively “Consensus” Trade
Ok, now that NFP is out of the way, it’s time for some humor (interspersed,
“This Is Goldilocks Data”: Was The Jobs Number Just Right?
“This is Goldilocks data – just right for Fed to hike, but not enough to accelerate what is already priced in.”
Please Fasten Your Seat Belts, Jobs Report Ahead
So obviously it was a relatively quiet overnight session as the entire world focuses on
More Trouble
I don’t know if maybe you noticed, but this is playing out exactly like I
After A Rough Start, It’s Been “Smooth” Sailing
“After 62 weeks, the present cycle has had the fewest corrections (six times) relative to other hiking cycles (Chart 3). By contrast, the equity market was turbulent during the 1999-2000 hiking cycle with 14 weekly corrections of at least 1.5% in 52 weeks.”
Chart Check: “Things Fall Apart”
Presented without comment.
Chart Of The Day: “Bear” This In Mind If You’re Short
Have you put on your flatteners? That’s a question some folks are asking these days
Treasurys Plunge, Yields Highest Since December After Blockbuster ADP Print
Remember a few Fridays ago when everyone was panicking about whether or not the reflation
Chart Check: When 94% Isn’t Enough
“That’s what I thought”…
“There’s No Point Denying The Reality We Live In”
On Monday in “There Are Plenty Of Investors Who Would Celebrate An 8% Drop,” I
Chart Check: “Trouble”
So earlier today in “To ‘Tantrum’ Or Not To ‘Tantrum’, That Is The Question,” I
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