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Author: therealheisenberg

“Frexit”: Bank Runs, Deposit Blocks, Capital Controls. Any Questions?

February 25, 2017

“We have some experience in this domain: the example of Greece in the summer of 2015. That is not a happy precedent.”

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“We Only Need Tax Returns And A Financial Statement – Which We Won’t Investigate”…

February 24, 2017

“Do you ever have déjà vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”

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1 Comment on “We Only Need Tax Returns And A Financial Statement – Which We Won’t Investigate”…

The S&P Has Now Gone 93 Days Without A 1% Decline

February 24, 2017

“Since 1980, there have been only six instances of the S&P 500 trading for 80 or more consecutive days without a 1% decline.”

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2 Comments on The S&P Has Now Gone 93 Days Without A 12 Decline

So You Want To Be Long Oil? Here’s How You Should Do It

February 24, 2017

Earlier on Friday I said “you just have to laugh.” And I meant that. There’s

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oil, OPECLeave a Comment on So You Want To Be Long Oil? Here’s How You Should Do It

Spot The Dumb Money

February 24, 2017

You know what they say…

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Goldman Wants To Know What Trump Voters Are So Damn Upset About

February 24, 2017February 24, 2017

Obviously, large swaths of the American electorate (and this apparently applies to European voters as well)

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8 Comments on Goldman Wants To Know What Trump Voters Are So Damn Upset About

All You Can Do Is Laugh

February 24, 2017

Still bullish?…

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oil, OPEC2 Comments on All You Can Do Is Laugh

“Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!” Part Deux

February 24, 2017February 24, 2017

For the hundredth time: “What do rates know that credit doesn’t?”

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1 Comment on “Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!” Part Deux

Holy “Schatz”

February 24, 2017

If you’re long equities, it is incumbent upon you to explain this to yourself…

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“A Glaring Error Of Omission”

February 24, 2017

  VaR shocks. Taper tantrums. I talk about such things a lot. And with good

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Reflation Frustration

February 24, 2017February 24, 2017

This is probably a decent time to start asking yourself if the narrative still makes

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Key Calls (Friday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

February 24, 2017

Are your stocks on the list?

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“Our Animal Spirits Have Been Shot By Poachers”

February 24, 2017

“It’s not so much whether the Fed minutes were a damp squib, the media round by the Treasury Secretary was underwhelming or we were once again reminded of European political risk”…

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Just Three Words

February 23, 2017February 23, 2017

All. In. Dammit.

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hedge fundsLeave a Comment on Just Three Words

Can You Hear Me Now?

February 23, 2017

So one of the things I’ve been harping on since the release of the Fed

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Chart Check (A Dubious New Record)

February 23, 2017

On Wednesday evening, I brought you “As Subprime Auto Bubble Bursts, Lenders Use GPS To

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Bacon Bubble Suddenly Bursts, BLT Demand In Serious Jeopardy

February 23, 2017February 23, 2017

“We continue to recommend caution with any major bacon purchases.”

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How The OPEC “Cut” Actually Added 1 Million Barrels/Day To The Oil Market

February 23, 2017

Well I’m not sure if I’d call it “bullish”, but as I’ve noted before “less

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oil, OPEC2 Comments on How The OPEC “Cut” Actually Added 1 Million Barrels/Day To The Oil Market

Chart Check (“Just How Anti-Euro Are You?”)

February 23, 2017

You’d be forgiven for thinking that the EU and the EMU are quickly becoming institutional

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2 Comments on Chart Check (“Just How Anti-Euro Are You?”)

As French Election Risk Plunges, One Heisenberg Reader Called It

February 23, 2017

Wax on, wax off. Risk on, risk off. I said it on Sunday: this week

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Trader To Trump: “You’ve Got One More Chance To Deliver”

February 23, 2017

“Trump needs to deliver next Tuesday or markets will throw a tantrum.”

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1 Comment on Trader To Trump: “You’ve Got One More Chance To Deliver”

Dollar Pulled Between Minutes And Mnuchin, Crude Hopes For Bullish EIA Print

February 23, 2017February 23, 2017

Ok so it’s Thursday morning and everyone has generally come around to what I said

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1 Comment on Dollar Pulled Between Minutes And Mnuchin, Crude Hopes For Bullish EIA Print

Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

February 23, 2017

Are your stocks on the list?

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As Subprime Auto Bubble Bursts, Lenders Use GPS To Hunt Deadbeat Borrowers

February 22, 2017February 22, 2017

Earlier this month, I noted that “Subprime Auto Loans Might Be Ok Because After All,

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1 Comment on As Subprime Auto Bubble Bursts, Lenders Use GPS To Hunt Deadbeat Borrowers

No, Those Fed Minutes Were Not Hawkish

February 22, 2017

Following the release of the latest Fed Minutes, I was exceedingly amused to watch as seemingly every commentator one cared to (virtually) consult tried to put a hawkish spin on things. That is of course consistent with what Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow described overnight as a “hawkish retelling” of an otherwise dovish statement.

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Dear Sterling: It Would Be Best If You Just Accepted Your Fate

February 22, 2017

Now days, the best way forward for the currency that Deutsche Bank suggested may soon become “irrelevant” may be for lawmakers to simply roll over and choose the path of least resistance.

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Confusion In The Air After Fed Minutes

February 22, 2017

FOMC TO START BALANCE SHEET DEBATE AT UPCOMING MEETINGS

MOST FED OFFICIALS JUDGED GRADUAL RATE HIKE PACE APPROPRIATE

FOMC SEES DOWNSIDE RISK FROM STRONG DOLLAR

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Jerry Brown on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • John3D on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • T-Dog on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • therealheisenberg on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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