Warning: there’s no structure here. Just some stream of consciousness oil market rambling along with some pretty good excerpts from Bloomberg, Reuters, and SocGen. Oh, and there’s a random chart at the end.
Author: therealheisenberg
Thinking Globally In A World Gone Mad
One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the
Saturday Humor (Crazy Like A “Fox”)
Nope, no connection here….
Did The Market Misread The Most Important Event Of The Week?
So we got a hawkish Yellen on Capitol Hill. Or did we?
A $1.3 Trillion Quandary
If you’re looking for pockets of risk (and you should always be looking for pockets
Goldman: “Cognitive Dissonance” Reigns In US Stock Market
“Cognitive dissonance exists in the US stock market. S&P 500 is up 10% since the election despite negative EPS revisions from sell-side analysts (see Exhibit 1). Investors, S&P 500 management teams, and sell-side analysts do not agree on the most likely path forward.”
Chart Check (“Up, Up And Away”)
“Le Pen is mightier than le sword”…
“Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!”
“Has the whole world gone crazy?! Am I the only one around here who gives a sh*t about the rules?!”
When (Black) Swans Cry
I also question whether bragging about having “f*ck you money” (which Taleb does in his books) is the type of thing befitting of a man who aspires to a kind of intellectual high ground that he seems to think the rest of us can’t possibly attain no matter how many times we read his work.
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
Chart Of The Day (“C’est La Vie”)
It may not look very dramatic, but looks can be deceiving. It’s all about France
Here Comes The Next “Tantrum”
I’m always warning about VaR shocks. More specifically, I like to remind investors that in
“Buridan’s Ass, Meet Scylla And Charybdis”
As I noted earlier on Friday, this week provided nothing in the way of clarity
Key Calls (Friday): “Inevitable Selloff” Edition
S&P 500’s 166-day streak without 5% pullback is longest since 2007; “Selloff is inevitable, perhaps starting very soonâ€
A French Kiss Leaves Global Risk Queasy On Friday
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
“What Are You Paying For?!” One Bank Asks Whether French CDS Is Worthless
What protection are you paying for? Marine Le Pen’s proposal to take France out of the euro is once again raising questions about whether CDS will “do what it says on the tinâ€. As on previous occasions, we fear the answer is “not necessarilyâ€
Must Read: Wall Street Explains Why We All Need Wall Street
Well, if this isn’t the very definition of serendipitous, then I don’t know what is.
What Trade War? Market Is Mispricing The Swans (Again)
If I’ve said it once (and I’m pretty sure I have), I’ve said it a
Good News: Hedge Funds Might Have A Chance To Beat Benchmarks In 2017
So what does any of this mean for average investors? Well, intuitively, it means there’s a chance for you to go out and find yourself some alpha by returning to your roots as an expert stock picker (boy, this post is just dripping with sarcasm).
Chart Check (“The Road To Nowhere”)
Walking up the down escalator…
“Tortured Traders” And Uncertainty: One Trader Weighs In On Spooked Markets
“Yesterday, NY Fed President Dudley said it was very unusual to see stocks rising when there’s so much uncertainty. True, but they’re getting a lot of help on the regulatory and tax side. But there’s no evidence in other markets that everyone has a clear vision of the path ahead.”
Albert Edwards Really Wants To Bitch At Janet Yellen, But He’s Going To Talk About Copper Instead
Last week, everyone’s favorite bear Albert Edwards tried to warn us. But did we listen?
Entire World Scrambles To Figure Out Why The Hell The Dollar Isn’t Stronger On Thursday
So what gives? Well, probably not a lot. It could just be everyone is taking a breather. But, in a testament to Nassim Taleb’s “narrative fallacy” argument, we have an overwhelming tendency to ascribe “causes” where there are none.
Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Holy Sh*t Chart Of The Day
This may be “familiar behavior for the credit market”, but I can’t help but flag this as a pretty alarming indicator regarding the credit risk surrounding the upcoming French elections.
Epic Wednesday Humor (Lord Of The Rings Edition)
“In the place of a Dark Lord you would have a Queen!”…
Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causation Which Is Fine Because That Was Never The Point
The problem – or at least one of the problems – seems to be that whenever some people hear “correlation”, they Marty McFly it right back to high school science class and regurgitate the old “correlation doesn’t equal causation” line and then subsequently tune out as if they’ve dropped the mic on me.
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