“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
Author: therealheisenberg
In Saudi-Qatar Spat, “Terrorist” Is A Political Term
“There is no question that these individuals are connected to Qatar, but the question of whether they are “terrorists†or not is essentially political.”
“Do You Ever Have Déjà Vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”: Oil And The “Slippery Slope”
“I don’t think so, but I can check with the kitchen”…
“Missing Was The Exclamation Mark”: Is It Time To Take Trump’s Tweets More Seriously?
“‘I did not make, and do not have, any such recordings.’ Missing is the standard exclamation mark.”
“We Are Close To A Point When The Narrative Changes”: Deutsche Warns On High Yield, Oil
“Historical evidence suggests that D/EV ratios at 60% or higher lead to a material jump in expected credit losses.”
ETFs To The Rescue!
“ETFs own almost 6% of the equity market, the highest ETF share on record. In contrast, mutual fund ownership fell to its lowest level since 2004 (24%).”
Explaining Low Vol In Dollar Terms (Literally)
“We believe that this risk-on phase (that started in January 2016) is coming to an end.”
Here’s A List Of Every Lie Trump Told In June
A big, beautiful list…
SocGen: “Watch Out For Oil Spills” When There’s “Nothing Else To Do”
“But then the market, with nothing else to do, started to focus on oil prices”…
This Is The “Most Vulnerable” Index In Credit To Macro Risk
“Quite in contrast to the past couple of years, this index now appears to be the most vulnerable to macro risks compared to other benchmarks in credit.”
Guest Post: Somewhere Cheap To Hide
“I don’t think there is any rush to buy. Yet for me, this is a perfect uncorrelated value story. Somewhere cheap to hide while the rest of the crazy extended market swings around.”
Analyst: Wal-Mart Could Outbid Amazon For Whole Foods Because “Godzilla Vs. King Kong” Isn’t Just A Movie
“King Kong vs. Godzilla is not only a theme but a reality – never underestimate the competitive dynamics in this industry.”
One Trader Trusts Numbers Even Less Than He Trusts You – And That’s Saying Something
“The dictionary speaks of facts and specifics. But in reality it includes, biases, positions and a whole lot of other subjective factors. You and I can, quite properly, look at the same data and react differently.”
Kolanovic Warns Of “Market Turmoil,” “Tail Risks” As Gandalf Ruins Your Friday
“Medium term, this is likely to lead to market turmoil, and a rise in volatility and tail risks.”
“They Don’t Want To See A Low Close”: China Is Still Manipulating Their Stock Market
““There’s still belief that authorities are trying to maintain the stock market at a certain level and don’t want to see a very low close.”
Russell Shuffle Day, Brexit Anniversary, & Crude Carnage
It’s Russell reshuffle day, which means equities will likely be jarred out of any summer
Key Calls (Friday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
You need to upgrade.
The Big 3’s Exit Plan In 1 “Easy” Flowchart
“It’s so simple”…
“Hakuna Matata”?
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
“Fuck My Life”: Trump Aides Respond To Comey Conspiracy Tweets
“At least that’s behind us.†When alerted to his apparent suspicions of Oval Office surveillance, the official replied in a text message, “fml.â€
Goldman Has 5 Exciting Options Trades They Want To Tell You About
Katherine and John are back and they want you to know that “the month of July has been a popular month for companies to preannounce over the past six years.”
“Unless They Can Read Minds,” Trump’s Lawyers Have No Idea If He’s Under Investigation
“And as for the claim that no investigation exists at all — unless the President’s lawyer can read minds, he really would have no way of knowing. The rest, as they say, is mere speculation.”
Bluff Called: Trump Has No “Tapes” Of James Comey
“I did not make any such recordings.”
“I Just Don’t Want A Poor Person”: Trump Explains How Much He Cares About “The People”
“I just don’t want poor people in these positions.”
Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era
See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…
Trader: “You Really Shouldn’t Make It Up As You Go Along”
“They don’t have to be governed only by the lowest common denominator. Nor forever ignore the negative externalities of oppressively low global rates and how they further suppress yields and encourage profligate risk-taking.”
Trump: I’ll Build Wall Out Of Solar Panels Because There’s “Lots Of Sun” Down There
“Pretty good imagination, right?,” he asked supporters. “Good? My idea.”Â
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