Maybe the US consumer isn’t feeling so terrible after all. Despite an underwhelming preliminary read
Author: therealheisenberg
Median New Home Price Hits $409,000 As Sales Surge
New home sales were more robust than expected in September, data out Tuesday showed. Sales
The Real Takeaway From Tesla Fireworks
At regular intervals, I feel compelled to remind market participants that things don’t really work
China Tells Evergrande Founder To Pay Debt With Personal Wealth
China has an idea for Evergrande. Hui Ka Yan should help pay the company’s debt.
The Facebook Papers: We’re Not Asking The Right Questions
It’s difficult for me to get excited about the latest deluge of damning revelations about
‘Persona Non Grata’: Erdogan Recycles Playbook
Last week, following a second consecutive rate cut from Turkey’s hopelessly beholden central bank, I
Crowded Bearish Rates Trade Poses ‘Major Market Reversal Risk’
Last week, I wrote that seemingly everyone has coalesced around some variation on a bearish
‘Epidemic’ Is A Relative Term
Traders and investors were greeted by proliferating coverage of China’s latest COVID outbreak as the
Rational Decision-Making
Referendums and elections are always about human feelings, not about human rationality. If democracy were
‘It’s Come To This’: Beyond The Great Supply Chain Crisis
If rates are losing the plot due to the impossibility of mapping the interplay between
Stagflation Week (Losing The Plot)
The market’s stagflation obsession will be on full display this week as GDP reports out
‘The System Has Become Over-Optimized’
In “Underestimating The Biggest Risk Of All,” I contextualized the Bank of England’s rate hike
Underestimating The Biggest Risk Of All
I doubt Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan was aware of this when he compelled central bank
Never Call The Top
Global equities enjoyed the largest inflow in five weeks as US stocks trekked towards new
US Inflation Shows ‘No Signs Of Abating’ In October
US services sector activity was more robust than anticipated in early October. Or something. It’s
UK Faces Nightmare Dilemma With Inflation Gauge At 25-Year High
Never miss an opportunity to use the word “century” in a headline. That’s especially applicable
Finding $83.5 Million
Evergrande found $83.5 million. With just days to go before the grace period on a
A Heroic Powell Restores Public Faith In The Fed
“This is huge news,” someone on Bloomberg Television declared, as the network interrupted a live
What If Nothing Is ‘Transitory’?
“Buyers likely want to secure a home before mortgage rates increase even further next year,”
‘Enemy’ Of Interest Rates Tempts Fate. Again
In yet another exceptionally ill-advised, albeit wholly predictable, move, Turkey cut rates again on Thursday.
The Maddening Trudge To A Suboptimal Normal
A week after dropping below 300,000, US jobless claims fell again to a new pandemic-era
Evergrande Moves Closer To The Abyss
Update: On Friday, Evergrande reportedly paid the $83.5 million bond interest referenced below Evergrande was
Simply Saying ‘China’
When it comes to tail risks, there’s inflation, there’s China and then there’s everything else.
Why Higher?
A few days ago, I reiterated the absolute necessity of taking systematic trading and mechanistic
Jens Weidmann Has Left The Building
Jens Weidmann resigned as Bundesbank President today, effective December 31. Some years ago, when I
Cognitive Dissonance And The Bond Bears
If you’re the type who thinks it’s a contrarian indicator when seemingly everyone coalesces around
‘A Critical Phase Shift Is Occurring In Real-Time’
If you needed yet another piece of incremental evidence to support any iteration of the
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