The holiday slowdown beckons. If you know what to look for, you can see it
Author: therealheisenberg
COVID Easing Versus Policy Tightening
Markets were muted and sentiment subdued Tuesday, as news of incremental easing in China’s COVID
Reversal Shocks
Notwithstanding a Monday bounce triggered at least in part by a robust ISM services print
US Services Sector Is Thriving. And Also Deteriorating
Bad news: Good news. The first of this week’s sparse US economic data was inconsistent
The Terrifying Case Of $65 Trillion In ‘Missing US Dollar Debt’
“Off-balance sheet dollar debt may remain out of sight and out of mind, but only
Grand Reopening?
“COVID zero” in China is over. Not officially, and maybe not for good. But de
The Fed Keeps Proving Critics Right
I try to give technocratic policymakers the benefit of the doubt. I really do. For
It’s The Quiet Weeks That Get You
The data docket is a bit sparse in the US this week, and Fed officials
America’s Cheap Labor Addiction Revisited
[Editor’s note: Historically, I haven’t run many articles more than once, not because there aren’t
Larry Summers Sketches The Coming Recession
On the eve of a jobs report which argued for the persistence of an overtly
‘The Buy Signal Is Close To An End’
Is the rebound in risk assets sustainable? That question burns after the Dow rallied into
Recent Market Moves ‘Could Be Self-Defeating,’ Goldman Says
The rebound on Wall Street dodged a bullet Friday, when stocks managed to avoid losses
What One Popular Strategist Sees For 2023
I’ve said it before, and there’s no telling how many more times I’ll say it
Payback And Back Pay
Big tech isn’t the US economy, folks. A few ostensible “experts” seemed surprised Friday by
Jobs Report Is (Very) Bad News For Fed
The US economy added more jobs than economists anticipated in November and wage growth rose
Macro Riddle Has Just One Solution
The recent rally in equities in part reflects the market front-running an eventual negative payrolls
This May Be Fed’s ‘Final Phase Shift’
On Thursday, in “Powell Didn’t Try To Kill The Rally. And That’s Notable,” I contextualized
Powell Didn’t Try To Kill The Rally. And That’s Notable
There wasn’t much America’s beleaguered technocrat in chief could’ve said differently this week to short
Good. Bad. What’s The Difference?
Bad news. Good news. What’s the difference these days? It’s hard to say in an
Same Picture, Different Data
The BEA handed markets a generally cooperative set of data on Thursday, one session on
Beloved Comrades
There’s a raging bull market in news out of China. Every day brings a new
Why The Fed May Have To Relent, According To Marko Kolanovic
“Until late summer, we thought corporate and consumer resilience [would] be able to withstand the
Powell Delivers 2,400-Word FOMC Statement
Jerome Powell was pretty specific on a number of key points in prepared remarks for
In Housing: ‘Difficult Months’
News sections on real estate websites read like obituaries these days. Not so long ago,
‘Normal’ Still Elusive In US Labor Market
Good news: There are less available jobs in the world’s largest economy. That doesn’t sound
Manufacturing Payrolls Plunge As Private Sector Hiring Decelerates
US private sector employers added fewer jobs than anticipated in November. At 127,000, the headline
In Europe, A Sight For Sore, Irrelevant Eyes
Rejoice! The rate of annual price growth in Europe decelerated this month by the most
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