The consensus narrative around the latest vintage of the Fed’s senior loan officer survey is
Author: therealheisenberg
Saved By The Beveridge Curve (This Time Is Different)
This time is different. No, seriously. It is. The question is whether it’ll stay different.
Fade The Neon Swans?
There’s “neon swan” potential lurking in America’s debt ceiling crisis. Notwithstanding one former president’s unorthodox
Fed Gets Disastrous Sentiment Report As Inflation Expectations Jump
In a decidedly unwelcome development reminiscent of a fateful Friday in June of 2022, University
It’s (Not) The Economy, Stupid
Do Americans even care about the economy anymore? You’d think the answer is (still) a
Bear Echoes
“2023 is in no way comparable to 2008.” How many times have you heard that
Money Market Assets Hit Fresh Record. Fed Backstop Usage Rises Anew
Inflows to money market funds slowed in the week to May 10, but total assets
How Bank Failures Drove Stocks Higher And Vol Lower
If you’ve been following along, you’ve noticed a paradox in markets: Two months on from
How S&P Companies Will Spend Cash This Year And Next
Buybacks will likely fall 15% in 2023. That’s according to Goldman, whose Ryan Hammond and
Trump, The Debt Ceiling And An Uncomfortable Question
“You once said that using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge just could not
Jump In Jobless Claims, Slower PPI Nod To Elusive US Disinflation
US producer prices rose less than expected and jobless claims exceeded estimates, in a round
BoE Mixes Hapless And Hopeful In 12th Rate Hike
The Bank of England hiked rates for the 12th straight meeting on Thursday, in what
An Uneasy, Untenable Calm
Are you still awake? Is this thing on? It’s easy enough to fall asleep on
Edwards Warns On Credit Demand, ‘Vortex Of Debility’ For Tech
SocGen’s Albert Edwards thinks we might be setting the bar a little too low when
Powell’s Unlucky Fed Stares Into Default Oblivion
Jerome Powell, officially the least popular Fed chair since Gallup began tracking public confidence in
After Dialing Up $72 Billion, How Much More Can Vol-Control Buy?
In “Quants And Mortals” I gave readers what I’d describe as the “generic” version of
US Inflation Is Nonevent Amid Benign Super-Core Measures
US consumer prices rose in line with expectations last month, data out Wednesday showed. I
Pondering Armageddon: What Happens If The US Defaults?
I’d like to think Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell understand the
Quants Versus Mortals
Regular readers are familiar with, and probably a bit confused by, the remarkable disparity between
Americans Still Have Half A Trillion To Spend
Americans are still sitting on half a trillion in excess savings, a stash that could
Bond Flows Get Passive Aggressive
I noticed a remarkable factoid this week that probably should’ve occurred to me previously: Active
China Recovery Theme Turns Vexingly Convoluted
China’s economic recovery is proving to be a halting affair. Notwithstanding justifiable reservations about the
Powell’s Record Low Approval Is Symptom Of Broader Ailment
Never before has a Fed chair “enjoyed” a lower approval rating among the voting public
Putin, Prigozhin Deliver Dueling Speeches On Bizarre Victory Day
“Everything is good on TV. On the ground will be the Ukrainian offensive,” Yevgeniy Prigozhin
Lending Standards Tighten Further As Demand Collapses, Banks Fret
The most anticipated senior loan officer opinion survey in recent memory showed the share of
Maybe The Consumer Is Exhausted After All
The highlight from last month’s New York Fed consumer survey was a new peak+ in
Kolanovic Sees ‘Dissonance’ In Markets. Warns Of Stock Selloff
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic sees evidence of “dissonance.” Markets steadfastly refuse to give up on the
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