Short vol strategies have been profitable lately. “Grotesquely” so, in fact. The colorful description comes
Author: therealheisenberg
The Recession That Never Came
Another day, another reminder that a US recession is just around the corner. Allegedly. I’m
4 Reasons One Bear Hasn’t Turned Bullish
For quite some time now, one bank’s leading earnings indicators have tipped a marked deceleration
New US Home Sales Surge. Average Prices Jump Back Near Record
New home sales in the US soared almost 10% last month, as lower mortgage rates
Surprise! US Home Prices Are Rising Again
US home prices unexpectedly rose in February, backward-looking data released on Tuesday showed. I’m not
Americans Condemn Themselves To Election Rematch They Don’t Want
In an NBC News poll released last week, 70% said Joe Biden shouldn’t seek reelection.
Kolanovic, McElligott Weigh In On Collapsed Stock Volatility
The market is “dominated by option sellers.” That’s according to JPMorgan analysts led by Marko
Are Good Earnings Bad News In 2023?
Do we even want a good reporting season from corporate America? Arguably not. Or at
US Equities Vol Regime Undergoes ‘Polar Opposite’ Shift
You’ve heard it again and again: You only need downside protection if you have exposure
Rate Cuts? Maybe. Easing Cycle? No.
“This time” is famously “never different,” but this cycle certainly is. It’s been a generation
Misplaced Optimism, False Fed Optic, Liquidity Blamed For Sturdy Stocks
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson still thinks earnings estimates are too optimistic. He’s also convinced that equities
Credit Suisse Had A Bad Quarter
Credit Suisse released Q1 results on Monday. They weren’t great. I suppose you could say
Understanding The Valuation-Rates-Macro Nexus
If last year’s cross-asset malaise taught us anything, it’s that no correlation, no matter how
Macron’s China Strategy Backfires As Diplomat Infuriates Baltics
“It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a
If SVB Was A ‘Crisis,’ Six-Month Rate Cut Odds Are 70%
Last week, during a Bloomberg forum, Brian Moynihan suggested the media and market participants might
A Fragile Equilibrium Meets Key Data As Traders Await Fed
Fed officials will be in their pre-meeting communications moratorium this week, which is just as
Reinventing Wheels
“Is that ready?” It was 4:45 AM, or thereabouts. Kazakhstan had floated the tenge, and
Another De-Dollarization Reality Check
It’s not just your imagination, even if the narrative is (mostly) imaginary: De-dollarization is a
D.C. ‘X-Date’ Debate Heats Up Amid Lackluster Tax Receipts
When will the US default? Never. Or at least not in the way that everyone
High Profits, Hibernating Fear
Earlier this week, I talked a bit about the “too low” VIX. It’s a familiar
Breaking The Weak To Brake Inflation
It’s fine unless you need new financing. That applies in a lot of contexts right
25/25/25/25
A couple of days ago, I mentioned the 25/25/25/25 portfolio again. The case for embracing
‘Locking In’ Inflation: Revenge Of The Theories
Are central banks “locking in” above-target inflation? You’d like to think not. And policymakers would
US Business Surveys Show No Slowdown, Inflation Heating Up Again
So much for the “slowdown” narrative. You might’ve assumed the second-largest bank failure in US
‘Partly Booming’ European Services Puts ECB In ‘Sticky’ Situation
Activity in Europe’s services sector is picking up rapidly. Whether that’s a good thing depends
Money Market Assets Dive, Fed Backstop Usage Rises Amid Tax Distortions
US money market fund assets plunged by almost $70 billion over the weekly reporting period
Yellen Stakes Out US Position Ahead Of China Tech Restrictions
For the third time in as many months, I’m compelled to inform you that Joe
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