Some economists were surprised Thursday by the scope of the decline in US jobless claims,
Author: therealheisenberg
Two ‘Major’ Risks From A D.C. Debt Ceiling Deal
A debt ceiling deal in D.C. would be good news, right? Yes. Yes, it would.
A World At War
With a debt ceiling deal now “doable” (Kevin McCarthy’s word), Joe Biden was cleared for
Is ChatGPT To Thank For All Of 2023’s Stock Gains?
You can’t separate the S&P 500’s YTD gains from the performance of large-cap US tech
‘You Print The Money, I Hate To Tell You’
When it comes to the debt ceiling debate — and just debt in general in
At The Margins
There’s good news and bad news on margins. The bad news is, all three key
The Recession Trade Is Right In Front Of You
Market pricing for prospective Fed cuts in the back half of 2023 is indicative of
Corporate America’s 30-Year Profitability Bonanza May Be Over
Over the past 30 years, S&P 500 profit margins more than doubled, from 5% to
Target Delivers Ambiguous Results With Consumers ‘Under Pressure’
Sales at Target slowed in March and decelerated further in April, the company said Wednesday,
A.I. Everywhere
Sam Altman expressed concern about the A.I. programs he’s developing during remarks to US lawmakers
Famous Quant Warns Of ‘Rude Awakening’ In ‘Coming Vol Flare-Ups’
“Bonds imply a recession.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic, who’s maintaining a
McElligott Breaks Down ‘Really Fascinating’ Equities Vol Dynamics
The equities vol space is quite interesting these days — or “really fascinating,” as Nomura’s
Americans Herded Into New Construction Amid Acute Lack Of Resale Homes
You surely didn’t “hear it here first,” but you’ve certainly heard it here a lot:
Tech Allocations Surge As Funds Pile Into World’s Most Crowded Trade
Given that the small cohort of large companies we generally refer to as “mega-tech” is
‘That’s It?’ Markets Incredulous At Lackluster Chinese Economy
China’s economic recovery is no recovery at all. Last week, I called+ the situation “vexingly
US Retail Sales Surprisingly Buoyant Under The Hood
Headline US retail sales rose just half as much as expected in April, but underlying
Growth Outlook Poor, But ‘Soft Landing’ Is Consensus For $700 Billion In AUM
Tuesday’s media spin on the May vintage of a closely-watched fund manager survey lacked important
Kolanovic Laments Stocks’ ‘Complete Disregard’ For Macro, Policy Signals
Equities are disconnected both from macro and policy realities. That’s according to JPMorgan analysts led
Americans Always Pay Down Credit Cards In Q1. But Not This Year…
Typically, Americans’ credit card balances decline during the first quarter of a calendar year. Not in
At Least One Famous Billionaire Is Bullish
For what it’s worth — which is either nothing at all or quite a lot,
Wall Street’s Ardent Bear Is Sticking With It
Headed into this year, the buy-side had (begrudgingly, perhaps) come around to a pretty bearish
Why Stocks Could Fall 18% Despite Fed Pause
You’ve heard it before: “Sell the last hike.” That’s a familiar refrain for those who
Two Men’s Pride Threatens ‘Inflection Point’ For Dollar Hegemony
Joe Biden described himself as a “congenital optimist” while speaking to reporters about the debt
Out Of US Stocks, Into Cash And Bonds
If you’re keeping track at home, outflows from US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds continued
Turkey Tests Its Strongman
“Very ridiculous.” That’s how Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the notion he might refuse to step
Traders Eye D.C. Drama, Fed Speakers, Housing, China In New Week
Retail sales, housing data and debt ceiling drama will dominate the market narrative in the
Profits And Prophecies
With 90% of market cap reporting, earnings season in the US is over for all
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