It’ll probably take a recession to restore price stability. That’s according to JPMorgan analysts led
Author: therealheisenberg
The August Risk
If you’re wondering whether the nascent bull market in US equities risks making the Fed’s
Melt-Ups, Crash-Ups And Vol Bleeders
The rebuilding of positioning across broad equities amid the S&P’s trek into bull market territory
Fed Consumer Survey Paints Mixed Picture On Eve Of FOMC
I’d like to tell you the latest vintage of the New York Fed’s consumer survey
Ominous Harbinger Or Sunny Bellwether?
Last month, at the height of the A.I. frenzy, big-cap US tech’s outperformance to domestic
‘The Bear Market Is Still Alive,’ Wilson Says
Not everyone is on board with the idea that the bear market in US equities
Deutsche’s Kocic Details Trading ‘Paralysis,’ Disappearing RV
A “toxic combination” of factors has conspired to create “stifling” trading conditions in rates, where
What To Expect From The June FOMC Meeting
Barring a large upside surprise in CPI figures due Tuesday, the Fed will likely pause
Truly Data Dependent?
“If Fed policy were truly data dependent, the case for a rate increase at the
No ‘Pausing’ For A Determined ECB
The Fed isn’t the only game in town this week. In addition to the June
Was The Bull Market Over Before It Started?
One, but certainly not the only, criticism of the newly-minted “bull market” in US equities
Goldman Raises S&P Target As US Stocks Cling To Bull Market
Goldman’s David Kostin has seen enough. With the S&P in an ostensible bull market amid
A Market Timing Reality Check
They say the most important things in life are free. Sometimes, they’re also the most
‘Officially Over’: Subramanian Calls Time On Bear Market
“The bear market is officially over.” So said BofA’s Savita Subramanian on Friday, in a
Will The Flows Floodgates Reopen For Stocks?
Sympathetic as I (pretty plainly) am to the bear case for an equity market trading
Bubbly Bulls, Boring Bears And ‘Blah, Blah, Blah’
“Blah, blah, blah.” That’s how BofA’s Michael Hartnett described the bear case for equities with
Erdogan Settles On Ex-First Republic Exec For Central Bank Job
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a new central bank chief. If nothing else, Hafize Gaye Erkan
Twice Impeached. Twice Indicted
Twice impeached and now twice indicted. Donald Trump was charged by the Justice Department on
Money Fund Assets Near $5.5 Trillion. Usage Of Fed’s Bank Backstop Hits $100 Billion
Already inundated money market funds took in another $37 billion in the week to June
Don’t Forget This Week
If you take anything away from this week’s market developments, let it be this: Central
Market’s Favorite Bear Case Considered Valid Until Proven Otherwise
I doubt most readers need another point/counterpoint exercise around what Deutsche Bank described this week
US Homeowners See First Home Equity Losses Since 2012
The home equity losses are here. US homeowners with mortgages (around two-thirds) suffered more than
US Jobless Claims Leap In Boon To Doom
Macro watchers and market participants of all shapes and sizes are on US recession watch.
Europe Had A Boring Winter Recession
It’s pretty difficult to sensationalize a 0.1% contraction. Even when you have two of them
Three Good News Inflation Stories
On a day when a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Canada (amplified by
Surprise Rate Hikes Force Yet Another Market Rethink
Markets are on notice: Rate hikes can recommence after a pause. I’m not sure why
Why One Bank Isn’t Buying The ‘Liquidity Scare’ Bear Case
The relative importance of liquidity versus fundamentals as determinants of risk assets is everywhere and
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