2023 is halfway over. Time flies, unfortunately. Just yesterday I was a day younger. It
Author: therealheisenberg
The Supreme Court’s Student Debt Decision In Context
A year after overturning Roe and a day after restricting affirmative action, a half-dozen robed
The Macro Implications Of The Student Loan Decision
If you’re wondering what the Supreme Court’s decision to nix Joe Biden’s student debt relief
Fed Gets Good News In Critical Spending, Inflation Update
Markets and policymakers were handed what looked, on the surface anyway, like a Goldilocks US
US Stock Funds See More Outflows As Sugar High Wanes
In another testament to the notion that some of the thrill is gone for US
Bad Optics: Core, Services Inflation Rise In Europe As ECB Leans In
Headline European inflation receded in June to the slowest 12-month pace since January of 2022,
Money Market Outflows Slow. Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hits Another Record
Money market funds saw outflows for a third consecutive week, but the pace slowed. Nearly
Bear Flattener Still Pain Trade Amid Scorching US Data
This quick take won’t win me any awards for riveting storytelling, but I’d be totally
James Bond Geopolitics Fail To Stir Somnolent Summer Market
It feels like there’s a lot going on these days. In part, that’s because there
Retail Investor Euphoria May Be Fading
Some of the retail euphoria which helped push US equities into bull market territory may
Hot US Economy Stuns Again With Big GDP Revision, Plunging Claims
Thursday brought still more evidence of US economic resilience in the face of an ostensibly
Waiting Game
For the second straight day, Jerome Powell spoke in Europe about the outlook for US
‘The Recession That Refused To Realize’
Over the last several days, the US economy once again demonstrated a remarkable capacity to
The Paradoxical Legacy Of 2023’s US Banking Crisis
Was America’s regional banking crisis a tempest in a teapot? (And yes, the Jamie Dimon
Biden May Escalate China Tech War With Updated Chip Ban
To the extent corporations are inclined to pretend there’s something ambiguous about the Biden administration’s
Powell Regales Sintra
Jerome Powell regaled the ECB’s annual central banking conference in Sintra on Wednesday. His remarks
Rationalizing The Unreal
“Equities are detached!” laments are admittedly tired, usually clichéd and rarely useful. The problem with
Was ‘General Armageddon’ In On Russian Mutiny?
“General Armageddon” might’ve been invited to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny. According to US intelligence, Sergei Surovikin,
Stocks Need A ‘Soft No Landing’
Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia may be loosening, but the US labor market isn’t. Or
A Quick Word On Prigozhin’s ‘Accidental Coup’
This time last year, geopolitical observers were beginning to question their assumptions about an inevitable
New US Home Sales Skyrocket Amid Acute Resale Property Shortage
New US home sales exploded higher in May, underscoring the bifurcated character of America’s hopelessly
Markets Increasingly Disconnected From Macro On Soft Landing Odds
Equities are increasingly priced for a soft landing. You can look at that one of
US Home Prices See ‘Broad-Based’ Rebound In Potential Problem For Fed
US home prices rose more than expected on a monthly basis at the beginning of
The Straightforward Case For A Modest Selloff On Wall Street
The best argument for a pullback on Wall Street may be the simplest: There hasn’t
Dorothy And The Frankenstein Cycle
“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore,” said macro watcher after macro watcher in
Mike Wilson Will Make Bears Of You Yet
There’s a “vigorous debate” going on right now around the outlook for equities, and particularly
Checking The Taiwan Barometer
When it comes to global growth canaries, you could do worse than Asian exports and
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