Jobless Claims Fall, Philly Prices Spread Plunges To Most Negative Ever

The US labor market isn’t cracking.

Initial jobless claims fell to 228,000 in the week to July 15, Thursday’s update showed. That was 12,000 below consensus.

The range, from four-dozen economists, was 220,000 to 260,000.

The prior week was unrevised. Claims are now the lowest since mid-May. Actual, unadjusted claims fell slightly.

It’s been six weeks since claims suddenly jumped to levels last seen in October of 2021. They loitered there for a spell before trending lower again. The spike was, like so many others, a false alarm.

Continuing claims rose to 1.754 million in the week to July 8, Thursday’s data showed. That was above estimates.

I hesitate to mention the Philly Fed survey. The series is too volatile to take seriously (with apologies), but there was a notable spike in the prices received index, which jumped sharply this month from last. That gauge is the highest since January, for whatever that’s worth.

The prices paid index, by contrast, fell slightly, leading to the most negative spread ever.

A combined 79% of firms reported either no change to their input prices or lower costs. And yet, just 6% reported lower prices for their own goods. Call that what you will.

If you’re inclined to over-interpretation, I suppose you could say the Philly prices discrepancy is evidence of “sticky” inflation and thereby suggests the Fed’s job isn’t done. But that doesn’t tell us anything new.

Bottom line: The US labor market is resilient, and the world’s largest economy isn’t in a recession. Carry on.


 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

One thought on “Jobless Claims Fall, Philly Prices Spread Plunges To Most Negative Ever

Create a free account or log in

Gain access to read this article

Yes, I would like to receive new content and updates.

10th Anniversary Boutique

Coming Soon