Tesla, Netflix Mark Unofficial Start To Big US ‘Tech’ Earnings

Wednesday marked the unofficial start of big “tech” earnings in the US, as Tesla and Netflix delivered results.

At Netflix, investors were curious as to the impact of the company’s crackdown on password sharing and also progress generating revenue from ads — that’s ads with one “d,” as opposed to paid net “adds,” with two.

In Q1, Netflix launched paid sharing in a handful of countries. The company said it was “pleased with the results” and executed a broader rollout in Q2, including in the US. That rollout (to more than 100 countries starting in May) represented more than 80% of the company’s revenue base.

Netflix said Wednesday that revenue in each region “is now higher than pre-launch,” while sign-ups “already exceed cancellations.” That’s good news and paid net adds were a big beat at 5.9 million. Consensus was looking for just over two million.

It wasn’t hard to write the headline and boilerplate copy. Bloomberg had it up within 60 seconds: “Netflix Password Crackdown Delivers Millions of New Members.” (Someone had that one waiting and amusingly, they pulled the trigger too fast. It was later corrected to read, “Netflix Password Crackdown Delivers Millions of Users.”)

“We’re rolling out paid sharing to almost all of the remaining countries,” Netflix went on to say. Q2 streaming paid memberships were 238.4 million, four million more than estimates.

Revenue of $8.2 billion for the quarter was a miss, though. More importantly, the Q3 top-line guide, $8.52 billion, was short of the $8.7 billion the Street wanted. That had the potential to weigh on the shares.

The company’s operating margin, at 22%, was better than expected and Q2 EPS easily beat ($3.29 versus $2.85 expected). Netflix’s profit outlook for this quarter was considerably better than estimates ($3.52 versus $3.23). The statement mentioned “ongoing expense management, slower-than-projected headcount growth and the timing of content spend.” Paid net adds should be “similar” in Q3 to Q2’s total.

“We generally haven’t had price increases in our largest revenue markets since the first half of last year,” the company remarked. Comps with 2022 will be challenging in Q3 as Netflix laps last year’s price hikes. The earnings release described revenue from advertising and an extra member feature as “not yet material enough” to offset those factors. Sales growth should “accelerate more substantially” in Q4, as the company expects to “further monetize account sharing between households and steadily grow advertising revenue.”

Netflix has apparently rid itself of a cheap ad-free plan in the US and the UK. It’s not available anymore for new or rejoining members, who will have to pay at least $15.49 if they want an ad-free option. Current subscribers of the cheaper plan aren’t affected unless they decide to change plans or cancel.

Tesla, meanwhile, beat on the top line, but gross margin, at 18.2%, was 682bps narrower YoY and a few dozen basis points short of consensus.

Elon Musk — who runs Tesla when he takes a break from perpetuating the culture wars on the social media platform he bought for triple what it’s now allegedly worth — is pursuing a volume-over-price strategy, the opposite of the approach many companies adopted in the so-called “excuseflation” macro environment.

It’s working. I guess. Volumes are up, but eventually you’d expect a hit to revenue and/or margins.

In the slide deck, Tesla patted itself on the back for producing $24.9 billion in revenue “in a single quarter.” That was up 47% YoY. As an amusing (and not wholly unrelated) aside, Aramco generated more than that in net income every, single quarter for two straight years. Musk has previously suggested Tesla could be worth twice as much as Saudi Arabia’s crown jewel.

As most readers are doubtlessly aware, Tesla reported another deliveries record earlier this month: 466,140 was up 83% from the same period a year ago, when the lockdowns in China affected operations.

Again, the “go for volume” strategy is working out, and to be fair, Tesla does have profitability to spare.

The deck touted a focus on “cost reduction,” which Musk seems confident can coexist peacefully with “new product development” (Cybertruck!), R&D investments and “continuous product improvement.”

“We are excited that we were able to achieve such results given the macroeconomic environment,” the company beamed. Guidance for full-year production was unchanged at 1.8 million. Analysts were looking for 1.88 million. Tesla expects “to remain ahead” of its standing, long-term 50% CAGR target.


 

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2 thoughts on “Tesla, Netflix Mark Unofficial Start To Big US ‘Tech’ Earnings

  1. Go for volume isn’t working if means profits are down. Market value is not company performance, it’s only stock market performance. The money made in the stock market doesn’t go into the company, it only goes to the paper portfolios of the plungers. In the first week of Econ 101 everyone gets their first look at supply and demand. That’s where we learn that demand (volume) and price are inversely related. Later, in a week or two we get the chapter Musk didn’t read, the one about demand elasticity. Price goes up, demand goes down. Price goes down, demand goes up. Rarely do these things happen at the same rate. When prices are lowered to raise volume, the outcome is only good if volume goes up more than the price went down. Here that didn’t happen. Also, lowering prices to raise volume raises unit throughput. Since variable costs are fixed per unit, more volume means VCs go up at the same rate and combined with a falling price, squeezes gross profits which is what happened. A firm may raise volume with price cuts, but competitors can do the same, eventually negating the volume increase of others. No firm can create a sustainable competitive advantage base solely on the basis of selling price (not to be confused with manufacturing costs).

    1. Musk is betting the farm on turning cars into razors and full self-driving into razor blades, thereby escaping the volume-margin-profit box that car companies live in.

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