The US housing market is becoming entirely predictable. And yet, it’s still somewhat remarkable.

That’s an odd juxtaposition. With the exception of sunrises, sunsets and other natural phenomena which routinely inspire awe despite being themselves routine, predictable developments tend not to be especially notable.

But these are strange times for US housing, which is being pulled in all directions by elevated rates, record-high prices and an acute dearth of resale inventory, which has created a mismatch between supply and demand even in the face of soaring mortgage payments. Builders are rushing to meet that demand. New construction suffered a hangover in June following a blistering May, but builder sentiment has improved every month this year.

That confluence of factors is conducive to elevated demand for new homes, lackluster sales of existing homes (because buyers can’t buy what isn’t for sale) and stubborn prices, which can’t fall because, again, demand is artificially inflated and thus outstrips supply, overwhelming the drag from onerous affordability conditions.

With that in mind, it was hardly surprising when the NAR said Thursday that existing home sales notched the slowest June pace in 14 years. It was a development both predictable and remarkable.

Inventories contracted almost 14% YoY. “There are simply not enough homes for sale,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun remarked. “The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”

But it’s not obvious where that “doubling” could come from on the resale side. Homeowners who want to trade up aren’t excited about swapping a four-handle mortgage rate for a seven-handle, even if they can get top dollar for their properties.

June’s 4.16 million annual pace represented a 3.3% drop and was below estimates, albeit not by much. May’s figures were unrevised.

Existing home sales have fallen pretty much every month since January of 2022. Yun called the first half of this year “a downer for sure.”

The real “downer” for would-be buyers, though, is the read-through for affordability. As tipped here last week+, prices are on the brink of rising again on a YoY basis. That’s meaningful because prices were perched at records around this time last year.

Sure enough, Thursday’s data showed the median existing home price was $410,200 last month. That was second only to June of 2022. Last month was just the third time during which the median was higher than $400,000. A third of homes sold above-list.

Meanwhile, in a testament to just how bullish the market was on homebuilders (i.e., how high the bar is for results), D.R. Horton shares fell after kissing a record on better-than-expected earnings. The builder beat on both the top and bottom lines, and raised its full-year revenue guidance. But it wasn’t enough for bulls, apparently.

“Despite continued higher mortgage rates and inflationary pressures, our net sales orders increased 37% from the prior year quarter, as the supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points remains limited and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable,” the company said.